{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea1d58bb-d418-44f0-85e3-057f9144cfc0", "symbol": "EXT", "name": "Excite Technology Services Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.355, "architecture_energy": 70.596, "architecture_maturity": 60.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.039, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.8, "rotation_up": 12.45, "upward_expansion": 16.58, "deceleration": 34.73, "rotation_down": 73.0, "downward_expansion": 87.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0058, 0.006273, 0.006517, 0.006844 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.007333, "distance_from_trend": -0.318182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.009282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.461326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.910446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.50815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.318182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.461326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.052531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4701120, "relative_activity": 0.484286, "balance": 1.052531, "dry_up": 2.571889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215385, "annualized_volatility": 0.846118, "from_high_reference": -0.642857, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007333, "fair_value_reference": 0.009282, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.030028, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.039701, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.612878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024677, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.623636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078616, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.05791, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.729022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.375, "active": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.006568, "energy": 20.287321, "activity_lines": [ 0.006933, 0.006791, 0.006893, 0.007196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 27209411, "typical_volume": 8629162.4, "trend": 0.007483, "fair_value": 0.009298, "relative_strength": -28.000538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.005185, "energy": 26.333091, "activity_lines": [ 0.0066, 0.006673, 0.006788, 0.007096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 40625224, "typical_volume": 9785445.25, "trend": 0.007417, "fair_value": 0.009292, "relative_strength": -28.94154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.575037, "energy": 34.141009, "activity_lines": [ 0.006333, 0.006564, 0.006698, 0.007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 4701120, "typical_volume": 9707329.05, "trend": 0.007333, "fair_value": 0.009282, "relative_strength": -41.910446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.354723, "energy": 70.595529, "activity_lines": [ 0.0058, 0.006273, 0.006517, 0.006844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }