{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ea20faa8-4baa-4c54-9e38-9c56b8013524",
    "symbol": "FFLG",
    "name": "FIDELITY FUNDAMENTAL LARGE CAP GROWTH ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 62.751,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 23.186,
    "architecture_energy": 19.145,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.093,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.032,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.26,
        "rotation_up": 25.7,
        "upward_expansion": 50.17,
        "deceleration": 82.02,
        "rotation_down": 36.01,
        "downward_expansion": 28.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        32.604667,
        32.886813,
        33.039847,
        32.301941
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 33.54,
    "trend_reference": 31.397538,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.068237,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.02438,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340293,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.912149,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.134952,
    "excess_performance": 0.009327,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068237,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036987,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.340293,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084634,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019121,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06362,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.134952,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.875318,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 568000,
      "relative_activity": 1.007302,
      "balance": 0.875318,
      "dry_up": 1.709365,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.047925,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.22775,
      "from_high_reference": -0.050474,
      "from_low_reference": 0.270711
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.397538,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.02438,
      "structural_low": 26.394672,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.013311,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011286,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.099488,
        "worst_return": -0.022262,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.065989,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005397,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.180392,
        "worst_return": -0.193858,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.157147,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027287,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.059072,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.076309,
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        "best_return": 0.417569,
        "worst_return": 0.192909,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.116009,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.145652,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.137406,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.083468,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": -0.023801,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 23.510872,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 489935.95,
        "trend": 30.407156,
        "fair_value": 24.09459,
        "relative_strength": 3.077902,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 459399.45,
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        "fair_value": 24.424669,
        "relative_strength": 2.687861,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.048612,
        "energy": 44.107223,
        "activity_lines": [
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          31.662331
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 33.2,
        "volume": 411020,
        "typical_volume": 452976.05,
        "trend": 30.959867,
        "fair_value": 24.530727,
        "relative_strength": 0.708619,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.561594,
        "energy": 35.888246,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 33.93,
        "volume": 457684,
        "typical_volume": 462979.85,
        "trend": 31.104936,
        "fair_value": 24.636669,
        "relative_strength": 1.465747,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.715383,
        "energy": 37.344786,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.646215,
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          32.004848
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 32.08,
        "volume": 2418600,
        "typical_volume": 570993.4,
        "trend": 31.179209,
        "fair_value": 24.731072,
        "relative_strength": -2.535043,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.787607,
        "energy": 22.622024,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.108333,
          33.437956,
          32.914164,
          32.067755
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 31.88,
        "volume": 457906,
        "typical_volume": 577960.4,
        "trend": 31.229653,
        "fair_value": 24.821764,
        "relative_strength": -2.55011,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.357463,
        "energy": 19.994249,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.601667,
          33.116305,
          32.91854,
          32.112967
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 31.91,
        "volume": 411019,
        "typical_volume": 580065.85,
        "trend": 31.291261,
        "fair_value": 24.916111,
        "relative_strength": -3.460561,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.560818,
        "energy": 15.079926,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.291333,
          32.835621,
          32.910188,
          32.156861
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 33.54,
        "volume": 568000,
        "typical_volume": 563882.7,
        "trend": 31.397538,
        "fair_value": 25.02438,
        "relative_strength": -1.912149,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.185883,
        "energy": 19.14525,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.604667,
          32.886813,
          33.039847,
          32.301941
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}