{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea2a0e6b-bd29-446d-9d6a-c39a385417b6", "symbol": "USEU", "name": "WisdomTree Short USD Long EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.473, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.563, "architecture_energy": 29.192, "architecture_maturity": 37.947, "architecture_confidence": 62.371, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.2, "rotation_up": 23.54, "upward_expansion": 14.81, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 40.32, "downward_expansion": 64.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.646, 30.621546, 30.822738, 30.959548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.905001, "trend_reference": 31.156167, "distance_from_trend": -0.008062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.318459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.673163, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027074, "excess_performance": -0.197965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024161, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.474769, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15155, "relative_activity": 0.237893, "balance": 0.474769, "dry_up": 0.179899, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013826, "annualized_volatility": 0.055218, "from_high_reference": -0.048931, "from_low_reference": 0.021653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.156167, "fair_value_reference": 30.318459, "structural_low": 30.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003322, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.009024, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.042476, "worst_return": -0.03875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063952, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.073965, "worst_return": -0.074188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019029, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.137396, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.069387, "worst_return": -0.120663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.307818, "relative_strength": -16.918526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.821611, "energy": 70.222841, "activity_lines": [ 30.574333, 30.751, 30.984809, 31.118538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 9049, "typical_volume": 85244.05, "trend": 31.2485, "fair_value": 30.308908, "relative_strength": -15.076848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.260979, "energy": 66.097124, "activity_lines": [ 30.541333, 30.684, 30.932333, 31.071279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.35, "volume": 8883, "typical_volume": 70645.7, "trend": 31.203, "fair_value": 30.309645, "relative_strength": -15.037357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.220083, "energy": 65.841484, "activity_lines": [ 30.472333, 30.599, 30.866524, 31.013312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.635, "volume": 12755, "typical_volume": 65643.6, "trend": 31.170333, "fair_value": 30.313043, "relative_strength": -14.382126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.722537, "energy": 44.712903, "activity_lines": [ 30.518333, 30.581545, 30.831405, 30.976667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.905001, "volume": 15155, "typical_volume": 63705.2, "trend": 31.156167, "fair_value": 30.318459, "relative_strength": -15.673163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.562732, "energy": 29.192482, "activity_lines": [ 30.646, 30.621546, 30.822738, 30.959548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }