{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea300c81-8457-462e-b4c9-b8499eabeac6", "symbol": "NBSD", "name": "NEUBERGER SHORT DURATION INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.029, "architecture_energy": 42.297, "architecture_maturity": 24.262, "architecture_confidence": 69.279, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.04, "rotation_up": 58.7, "upward_expansion": 76.97, "deceleration": 53.67, "rotation_down": 17.07, "downward_expansion": 10.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.494336, 50.449679, 50.437468, 50.430701 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.595, "trend_reference": 50.430064, "distance_from_trend": 0.003271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.713779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.205083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001863, "excess_performance": -0.123762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003271, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002676, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.750838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1053564, "relative_activity": 1.301037, "balance": 1.750838, "dry_up": 1.056466, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003333, "annualized_volatility": 0.01671, "from_high_reference": -0.002417, "from_low_reference": 0.030981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.430064, "fair_value_reference": 48.713779, "structural_low": 50.038924, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000938, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001234, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001664, "worst_return": 0.000213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 50.372494, "volume": 755483, "typical_volume": 804326.85, "trend": 50.409093, "fair_value": 48.680179, "relative_strength": -7.053473, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.898036, "energy": 10.223043, "activity_lines": [ 50.393741, 50.404258, 50.409067, 50.41377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.495, "volume": 646520, "typical_volume": 788880.15, "trend": 50.418484, "fair_value": 48.696677, "relative_strength": -7.541641, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.955, "energy": 13.844052, "activity_lines": [ 50.434709, 50.418837, 50.418986, 50.419313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.595, "volume": 1053564, "typical_volume": 809787.7, "trend": 50.430064, "fair_value": 48.713779, "relative_strength": -10.205083, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.0291, "energy": 42.296784, "activity_lines": [ 50.494336, 50.449679, 50.437468, 50.430701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }