{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea342e65-fdb6-4d84-b76f-111fbb58c951", "symbol": "O9E", "name": "Parkson Retail Asia Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.177, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.879, "architecture_energy": 14.615, "architecture_maturity": 39.259, "architecture_confidence": 77.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.56, "rotation_up": 19.59, "upward_expansion": 50.25, "deceleration": 92.04, "rotation_down": 34.89, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.118133, 0.119345, 0.119143, 0.117392 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.117, "trend_reference": 0.117084, "distance_from_trend": -0.000719, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.079104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.479074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.331725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056452, "excess_performance": -0.211287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020633, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.479074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.277615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11483500, "relative_activity": 1.276648, "balance": 4.277615, "dry_up": 0.733543, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07265, "annualized_volatility": 0.376205, "from_high_reference": -0.370968, "from_low_reference": 0.347274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.117084, "fair_value_reference": 0.079104, "structural_low": 0.086842, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.015349, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.037856, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.606097, "worst_return": -0.122434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079374, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.078116, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.727325, "worst_return": -0.287357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142851, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013614, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.151535, "worst_return": -0.331169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108101, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.550796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", 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0.118098, 0.11721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.118, "volume": 6541800, "typical_volume": 8810175.0, "trend": 0.117451, "fair_value": 0.078336, "relative_strength": -23.589546, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.249074, "energy": 10.3741, "activity_lines": [ 0.1184, 0.121045, 0.118424, 0.117242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 5835300, "typical_volume": 8682870.0, "trend": 0.117218, "fair_value": 0.078734, "relative_strength": -21.661937, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.382958, "energy": 17.518547, "activity_lines": [ 0.1188, 0.12039, 0.118927, 0.117406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.117, "volume": 11483500, "typical_volume": 8995040.0, "trend": 0.117084, "fair_value": 0.079104, "relative_strength": -23.331725, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.878512, "energy": 14.614741, "activity_lines": [ 0.118133, 0.119345, 0.119143, 0.117392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }