{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea358dd5-32fa-40c0-8f87-4f05ce722130", "symbol": "601595", "name": "Shanghai Film Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.046, "architecture_energy": 52.505, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.82, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.64, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 43.51, "downward_expansion": 69.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.311333, 17.265091, 18.92019, 20.679441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.76, "trend_reference": 23.308333, "distance_from_trend": -0.238041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.52656, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.097175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405224, "excess_performance": -0.362021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14684, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.304254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765269, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36139886, "relative_activity": 1.469426, "balance": 0.765269, "dry_up": 2.03216, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096457, "annualized_volatility": 0.390632, "from_high_reference": -0.54278, "from_low_reference": 0.139192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.308333, "fair_value_reference": 25.52656, "structural_low": 15.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.031298, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.02776, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.361679, "worst_return": -0.178333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.094595, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.072418, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.251662, "worst_return": -0.249055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.176622, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.147064, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.206897, "worst_return": -0.211647, "sufficient": true }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.87, "volume": 53452827, "typical_volume": 23393797.4, "trend": 24.043333, "fair_value": 25.640151, "relative_strength": -39.273811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.729552, "energy": 70.636061, "activity_lines": [ 16.689333, 17.359818, 19.541857, 21.460344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.85, "volume": 46521308, "typical_volume": 24056083.4, "trend": 23.670667, "fair_value": 25.578733, "relative_strength": -31.144114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.245799, "energy": 61.914233, "activity_lines": [ 17.058, 17.282, 19.216619, 21.060774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.76, "volume": 36139886, "typical_volume": 24594555.4, "trend": 23.308333, "fair_value": 25.52656, "relative_strength": -32.097175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.045739, "energy": 52.504658, "activity_lines": [ 17.311333, 17.265091, 18.92019, 20.679441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }