{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea35eaa0-abd5-4cc9-97de-a9cbc66d0745", "symbol": "300222", "name": "CSG Smart Science&Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.275, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.387, "architecture_energy": 64.217, "architecture_maturity": 11.165, "architecture_confidence": 74.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.6, "rotation_up": 8.55, "upward_expansion": 13.0, "deceleration": 38.32, "rotation_down": 71.6, "downward_expansion": 86.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.111333, 11.010909, 11.923535, 11.973568 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.93, "trend_reference": 12.005281, "distance_from_trend": -0.089567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.359791, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.909554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041183, "excess_performance": -0.048583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013827, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209178, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.643553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159177838, "relative_activity": 1.064797, "balance": 2.643553, "dry_up": 1.003763, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187205, "annualized_volatility": 0.738304, "from_high_reference": -0.369302, "from_low_reference": 0.334554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.005281, "fair_value_reference": 9.359791, "structural_low": 8.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014309, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.085343, "worst_return": -0.013314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041203, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128692, "worst_return": -0.060651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.242878, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.041094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343882, "worst_return": -0.130194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.14977, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185635, "worst_return": 0.113905, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"up", "direction": 12.83308, "energy": 12.033247, "activity_lines": [ 12.674667, 13.314546, 12.847117, 12.550578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.44, "volume": 137068286, "typical_volume": 157440675.3, "trend": 12.084791, "fair_value": 9.319382, "relative_strength": -21.805575, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.337618, "energy": 27.136584, "activity_lines": [ 11.561333, 12.573818, 12.556731, 12.377147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.05, "volume": 165206317, "typical_volume": 153626665.55, "trend": 12.036369, "fair_value": 9.324634, "relative_strength": -24.902911, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.544483, "energy": 46.204857, "activity_lines": [ 10.474, 11.815818, 12.242803, 12.181354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.89, "volume": 138762685, "typical_volume": 148346401.0, "trend": 12.004322, "fair_value": 9.337634, "relative_strength": -16.333225, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.19739, "energy": 53.661867, "activity_lines": [ 10.008667, 11.280182, 12.027275, 12.042879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.93, "volume": 159177838, "typical_volume": 149491235.75, "trend": 12.005281, "fair_value": 9.359791, "relative_strength": -11.909554, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.386856, "energy": 64.216755, "activity_lines": [ 10.111333, 11.010909, 11.923535, 11.973568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }