{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea3bad4a-ba00-47b5-9a72-aa3b79a90ef1", "symbol": "BCBP", "name": "BCB Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.896, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.877, "architecture_energy": 20.723, "architecture_maturity": 59.589, "architecture_confidence": 72.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.75, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 46.27, "deceleration": 87.43, "rotation_down": 40.05, "downward_expansion": 26.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.724, 10.079273, 10.175139, 9.861964 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.91, "trend_reference": 9.353439, "distance_from_trend": -0.047409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.389523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.941174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095163, "excess_performance": -0.09229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135163, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1468147, "relative_activity": 2.063428, "balance": 0.334808, "dry_up": 1.288345, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084415, "annualized_volatility": 0.315896, "from_high_reference": -0.239112, "from_low_reference": 0.240469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.353439, "fair_value_reference": 9.389523, "structural_low": 7.728175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031442, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.02938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067984, "worst_return": -0.054627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00506, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075514, "worst_return": -0.392128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000144, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.226883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292025, "worst_return": -0.288688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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634484.2, "trend": 9.246828, "fair_value": 9.402649, "relative_strength": 6.937673, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.242528, "energy": 23.483522, "activity_lines": [ 10.262667, 10.476364, 10.266107, 9.840369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.99, "volume": 864313, "typical_volume": 658834.75, "trend": 9.318461, "fair_value": 9.399139, "relative_strength": 4.684616, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.299881, "energy": 20.082855, "activity_lines": [ 10.157333, 10.376727, 10.276823, 9.888316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.91, "volume": 1468147, "typical_volume": 711508.6, "trend": 9.353439, "fair_value": 9.389523, "relative_strength": -10.941174, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.876916, "energy": 20.723386, "activity_lines": [ 9.724, 10.079273, 10.175139, 9.861964 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }