{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea3d2bae-6631-4527-8517-86bf9461f993", "symbol": "002870", "name": "Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.309, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.411, "architecture_energy": 13.19, "architecture_maturity": 20.627, "architecture_confidence": 67.132, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 33.72, "upward_expansion": 56.21, "deceleration": 63.46, "rotation_down": 25.62, "downward_expansion": 17.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.144, 38.987091, 39.199126, 38.935421 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.75, "trend_reference": 38.790089, "distance_from_trend": 0.050526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.971498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.706795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053555, "excess_performance": 0.046155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006127, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047068, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.843781, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12666548, "relative_activity": 0.822951, "balance": 1.843781, "dry_up": 1.156582, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093127, "annualized_volatility": 0.247038, "from_high_reference": -0.089984, "from_low_reference": 0.273059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.790089, "fair_value_reference": 33.971498, "structural_low": 34.401994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.021175, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.013183, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.116738, "worst_return": -0.126517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003053, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.048615, "regime_survival": 0.090909, "best_return": 0.116129, "worst_return": -0.148816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001184, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.004932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133171, "worst_return": -0.248309, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.824879, "energy": 7.428921, "activity_lines": [ 38.485334, 38.901273, 39.031267, 38.843345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.200001, "volume": 12535890, "typical_volume": 15211623.55, "trend": 38.73832, "fair_value": 33.908495, "relative_strength": 3.318875, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.219252, "energy": 9.36859, "activity_lines": [ 38.367334, 38.676, 38.996379, 38.805635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.75, "volume": 12666548, "typical_volume": 15391620.95, "trend": 38.790089, "fair_value": 33.971498, "relative_strength": 4.706795, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.411248, "energy": 13.190425, "activity_lines": [ 39.144, 38.987091, 39.199126, 38.935421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }