{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea476649-fde6-473a-a020-3d5c75617ea6", "symbol": "PMM", "name": "Purpose Multi-Strategy Market Neutral Fund Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.099, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.174, "architecture_energy": 59.554, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 53.595, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.18, "rotation_up": 49.68, "upward_expansion": 76.69, "deceleration": 71.35, "rotation_down": 29.09, "downward_expansion": 14.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.185333, 28.168182, 27.963429, 27.768559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.440001, "trend_reference": 27.545667, "distance_from_trend": 0.032467, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.138718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.61361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040234, "excess_performance": -0.080187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032467, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040234, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.666667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.257235, "balance": 3.666667, "dry_up": 0.434084, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007844, "annualized_volatility": 0.052319, "from_high_reference": -0.002455, "from_low_reference": 0.137145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.545667, "fair_value_reference": 24.138718, "structural_low": 26.690001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.008536, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009456, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.029819, "worst_return": -0.034053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009325, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.064783, "worst_return": -0.05585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02292, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.055625, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.10351, "worst_return": -0.035073, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.925479, "energy": 87.358465, "activity_lines": [ 27.839333, 27.648909, 27.447857, 27.33314 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3735.0, "trend": 27.224, "fair_value": 23.779872, "relative_strength": -5.188873, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.495708, "energy": 93.492426, "activity_lines": [ 28.0, 27.769455, 27.531191, 27.399097 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.290001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3375.0, "trend": 27.261, "fair_value": 23.83109, "relative_strength": -4.712863, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.112398, "energy": 93.654933, "activity_lines": [ 28.133334, 27.892909, 27.617095, 27.467871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2930.0, "trend": 27.303, "fair_value": 23.883205, "relative_strength": -5.54188, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.993045, "energy": 88.745146, "activity_lines": [ 28.184667, 27.983637, 27.689905, 27.528452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.25, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2780.0, "trend": 27.357, "fair_value": 23.935641, "relative_strength": -5.333642, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.367467, "energy": 88.556428, "activity_lines": [ 28.222001, 28.067273, 27.762857, 27.589549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.91, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2440.0, "trend": 27.399667, "fair_value": 23.985513, "relative_strength": -6.144122, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.274336, "energy": 63.015933, "activity_lines": [ 28.128667, 28.068546, 27.79881, 27.625226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.049999, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 2095.0, "trend": 27.452333, "fair_value": 24.035897, "relative_strength": -5.744761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.819909, "energy": 55.798403, "activity_lines": [ 28.088667, 28.087818, 27.845381, 27.667183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.09, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1685.0, "trend": 27.506333, "fair_value": 24.086667, "relative_strength": -4.996266, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.01782, "energy": 45.771112, "activity_lines": [ 28.072, 28.101455, 27.890714, 27.708323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.440001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 1555.0, "trend": 27.545667, "fair_value": 24.138718, "relative_strength": -6.61361, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.173926, "energy": 59.553774, "activity_lines": [ 28.185333, 28.168182, 27.963429, 27.768559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }