{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea4869c7-c2f6-4ddc-b25a-1063c89495ba", "symbol": "ABCA", "name": "ABC arbitrage SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.186, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.422, "architecture_energy": 41.922, "architecture_maturity": 9.8, "architecture_confidence": 87.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.06, "rotation_up": 17.76, "upward_expansion": 5.89, "deceleration": 47.17, "rotation_down": 56.01, "downward_expansion": 79.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.12, 5.146461, 5.196557, 5.244456 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.18, "trend_reference": 5.299202, "distance_from_trend": -0.022494, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.73414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.428985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04909, "excess_performance": -0.102401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036068, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.483294, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148239, "relative_activity": 0.823234, "balance": 1.483294, "dry_up": 0.868095, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027842, "annualized_volatility": 0.224384, "from_high_reference": -0.131639, "from_low_reference": 0.0848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.299202, "fair_value_reference": 4.73414, "structural_low": 4.775074, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003413, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.009261, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.082888, "worst_return": -0.148064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027028, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.02551, "worst_return": -0.139372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003777, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032137, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.222619, "worst_return": -0.248013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02017, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.239422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055944, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015686, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.030067, "volume": 84275, "typical_volume": 134214.25, "trend": 4.988647, "fair_value": 5.252314, "relative_strength": -5.298434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.173868, 5.220085, 5.258352, 5.295474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.1, "volume": 111712, "typical_volume": 183341.5, "trend": 5.313301, "fair_value": 4.7305, "relative_strength": -8.076191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.617605, "energy": 67.000845, "activity_lines": [ 5.134636, 5.19577, 5.238096, 5.281662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.03, "volume": 175240, "typical_volume": 182494.35, "trend": 5.308548, "fair_value": 4.731086, "relative_strength": -9.330104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.999272, "energy": 73.424528, "activity_lines": [ 5.089328, 5.161819, 5.213715, 5.263385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.14, "volume": 190077, "typical_volume": 183346.4, "trend": 5.304844, "fair_value": 4.732645, "relative_strength": -8.380332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.132707, "energy": 65.717774, "activity_lines": [ 5.095995, 5.150049, 5.202266, 5.252511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.18, "volume": 148239, "typical_volume": 180069.1, "trend": 5.299202, "fair_value": 4.73414, "relative_strength": -9.428985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.422123, "energy": 41.921896, "activity_lines": [ 5.12, 5.146461, 5.196557, 5.244456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }