{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea4db135-9d8c-469a-bcc1-1fe4fda17e0c", "symbol": "002852", "name": "Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.765, "architecture_energy": 48.088, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.017, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.77, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 20.22, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 44.0, "downward_expansion": 70.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.526667, 7.508727, 7.877227, 8.429564 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.6, "trend_reference": 9.2136, "distance_from_trend": -0.175132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.056679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.725645, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.341224, "excess_performance": -0.348623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121001, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26065, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23345470, "relative_activity": 1.08515, "balance": 0.26065, "dry_up": 0.948327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068016, "annualized_volatility": 0.361447, "from_high_reference": -0.392917, "from_low_reference": 0.073446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.2136, "fair_value_reference": 9.056679, "structural_low": 7.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.021709, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.003881, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.281773, "worst_return": -0.19342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059314, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011825, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.569595, "worst_return": -0.230415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073938, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.042005, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.190622, "worst_return": -0.188601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.488, 7.615636, 8.206457, 8.80302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.14, "volume": 19641960, "typical_volume": 26911278.05, "trend": 9.405534, "fair_value": 9.102562, "relative_strength": -30.187007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.378091, "energy": 66.610052, "activity_lines": [ 7.374667, 7.495091, 8.046351, 8.649122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.71, "volume": 16813119, "typical_volume": 24923268.85, "trend": 9.307614, "fair_value": 9.078433, "relative_strength": -22.647298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.314533, "energy": 58.956234, "activity_lines": [ 7.486, 7.505273, 7.95747, 8.539732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.6, "volume": 23345470, "typical_volume": 21513590.7, "trend": 9.2136, "fair_value": 9.056679, "relative_strength": -26.725645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.764646, "energy": 48.088286, "activity_lines": [ 7.526667, 7.508727, 7.877227, 8.429564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }