{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea516a15-1205-4653-8584-1c5e61dbd522", "symbol": "PBJ", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR DYNAMIC FOOD & BEVERAGE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.899, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.856, "architecture_energy": 23.973, "architecture_maturity": 11.558, "architecture_confidence": 82.803, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.61, "rotation_up": 23.5, "upward_expansion": 8.88, "deceleration": 47.88, "rotation_down": 41.55, "downward_expansion": 68.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.823667, 47.874023, 48.08023, 48.331554 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.42, "trend_reference": 48.510348, "distance_from_trend": -0.022477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.723957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.441654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052338, "excess_performance": -0.177963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037093, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052338, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.514388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38273, "relative_activity": 0.486552, "balance": 3.514388, "dry_up": 0.6073, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028558, "annualized_volatility": 0.139409, "from_high_reference": -0.068482, "from_low_reference": 0.117433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.510348, "fair_value_reference": 45.723957, "structural_low": 46.17, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.0129, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001103, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.119693, "worst_return": -0.039993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004807, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.055134, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.119437, "worst_return": -0.089478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029292, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055183, "worst_return": -0.109111, 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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48.194942, 47.996125, 48.302162, 48.453814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.9314, "volume": 56312, "typical_volume": 83035.4, "trend": 48.314719, "fair_value": 45.671723, "relative_strength": -5.98952, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.714894, "energy": 8.385825, "activity_lines": [ 48.218467, 47.997273, 48.247563, 48.435352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.7052, "volume": 33418, "typical_volume": 79444.6, "trend": 48.419344, "fair_value": 45.697, "relative_strength": -7.111425, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.225222, "energy": 17.148204, "activity_lines": [ 48.064107, 47.955924, 48.174982, 48.396028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.42, "volume": 38273, "typical_volume": 78661.7, "trend": 48.510348, "fair_value": 45.723957, "relative_strength": -10.441654, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.856173, "energy": 23.973196, "activity_lines": [ 47.823667, 47.874023, 48.08023, 48.331554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }