{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea51a876-6ed7-4ffe-aab0-7742caed35d7", "symbol": "000852", "name": "Sinopec Oilfield Equipment Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.085, "architecture_energy": 59.063, "architecture_maturity": 91.568, "architecture_confidence": 85.726, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.25, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 47.74, "downward_expansion": 78.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.178, 5.186, 5.637667, 6.097376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.27, "trend_reference": 6.694667, "distance_from_trend": -0.212806, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.508718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.53813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.349383, "excess_performance": -0.356782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088648, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.349383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57202967, "relative_activity": 0.900352, "balance": 0.641284, "dry_up": 1.156287, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080426, "annualized_volatility": 0.350074, "from_high_reference": -0.449896, "from_low_reference": 0.100209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.694667, "fair_value_reference": 6.508718, "structural_low": 4.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.017465, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.016703, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.190826, "worst_return": -0.139932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.116236, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.050501, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.333945, "worst_return": -0.120226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036064, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.013501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13211, "worst_return": -0.029641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", 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"volume": 71568824, "typical_volume": 96901130.25, "trend": 6.898333, "fair_value": 6.550962, "relative_strength": -27.937076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.903289, "energy": 85.175655, "activity_lines": [ 5.072, 5.335273, 5.955952, 6.412667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.06, "volume": 108919817, "typical_volume": 78276428.25, "trend": 6.827333, "fair_value": 6.536923, "relative_strength": -27.155585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.76504, "energy": 72.995509, "activity_lines": [ 5.044, 5.229636, 5.820619, 6.294065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.27, "volume": 56162479, "typical_volume": 67493287.05, "trend": 6.761333, "fair_value": 6.522885, "relative_strength": -22.304992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.371141, "energy": 64.156262, "activity_lines": [ 5.118667, 5.197636, 5.722619, 6.193591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.27, "volume": 57202967, "typical_volume": 63533990.2, "trend": 6.694667, "fair_value": 6.508718, "relative_strength": -25.53813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.084576, "energy": 59.062744, "activity_lines": [ 5.178, 5.186, 5.637667, 6.097376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }