{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea5c3141-6554-4729-876f-fabf636b12e0", "symbol": "BDX", "name": "Becton, Dickinson and Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.9, "architecture_energy": 39.249, "architecture_maturity": 31.019, "architecture_confidence": 47.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.71, "rotation_up": 41.36, "upward_expansion": 37.5, "deceleration": 52.5, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 50.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2683.830078, 2663.345789, 2637.909268, 2685.361289 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2683.830078, "trend_reference": 2802.298929, "distance_from_trend": -0.042276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3850.201304, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.725417, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017618, "excess_performance": 0.072285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.018293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.018293, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006834, "annualized_volatility": 0.265256, "from_high_reference": -0.240566, "from_low_reference": 0.074619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2802.298929, "fair_value_reference": 3850.201304, "structural_low": 2497.470215, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021238, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.025602, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.045597, "worst_return": -0.031218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001562, "worst_return": -0.002231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.065213, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.116181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027529, "worst_return": -0.157955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042512, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.162146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", 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2683.830078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 183.4, "trend": 2915.653324, "fair_value": 3899.326122, "relative_strength": -16.551883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.255249, "energy": 40.685065, "activity_lines": [ 2639.498047, 2603.133022, 2635.495489, 2734.216863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2683.830078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 183.4, "trend": 2887.314725, "fair_value": 3889.164201, "relative_strength": -16.129082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.310815, "energy": 40.506529, "activity_lines": [ 2661.664062, 2622.904176, 2633.858553, 2719.260525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2683.830078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 183.4, "trend": 2858.976127, "fair_value": 3875.934127, "relative_strength": -15.246951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.066072, "energy": 44.685504, "activity_lines": [ 2676.441406, 2639.605204, 2633.903284, 2706.132483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2683.830078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 183.15, "trend": 2830.637528, "fair_value": 3863.067715, "relative_strength": -15.35405, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.11685, "energy": 36.255542, "activity_lines": [ 2683.830078, 2652.91787, 2635.629681, 2694.832738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2683.830078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 183.15, "trend": 2802.298929, "fair_value": 3850.201304, "relative_strength": -14.725417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.899796, "energy": 39.248758, "activity_lines": [ 2683.830078, 2663.345789, 2637.909268, 2685.361289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }