{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea5d8c2c-b19f-4ff3-8bea-04df11f6df64", "symbol": "A1N", "name": "ARN Media Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.352, "architecture_energy": 14.642, "architecture_maturity": 97.159, "architecture_confidence": 70.731, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.97, "rotation_up": 23.52, "upward_expansion": 23.62, "deceleration": 48.58, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 50.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.252, 0.250273, 0.248976, 0.261086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.286167, "distance_from_trend": -0.126383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.573598, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.564155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.797971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.564155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012689, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.069697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69828, "relative_activity": 0.037314, "balance": 0.069697, "dry_up": 0.058533, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100769, "annualized_volatility": 0.791247, "from_high_reference": -0.565217, "from_low_reference": 0.5625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.286167, "fair_value_reference": 0.573598, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.005988, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.009604, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.267516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.028274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045541, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.316759, "worst_return": -0.426829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125184, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.181867, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.351484, "worst_return": -0.389474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 0.25, "volume": 154009, "typical_volume": 1891666.8, "trend": 0.296167, "fair_value": 0.581695, "relative_strength": -32.627905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.883818, "energy": 28.034202, "activity_lines": [ 0.247, 0.247, 0.248881, 0.266075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 159840, "typical_volume": 1880662.65, "trend": 0.291167, "fair_value": 0.577638, "relative_strength": -30.811162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.15744, "energy": 19.356213, "activity_lines": [ 0.251667, 0.249727, 0.249214, 0.263742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 69828, "typical_volume": 1871380.45, "trend": 0.286167, "fair_value": 0.573598, "relative_strength": -34.797971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.351724, "energy": 14.641759, "activity_lines": [ 0.252, 0.250273, 0.248976, 0.261086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }