{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea63b525-0fb0-4058-9268-d7870ddda41f", "symbol": "SFNC", "name": "Simmons First National Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.659, "architecture_energy": 56.748, "architecture_maturity": 64.662, "architecture_confidence": 84.179, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.77, "rotation_up": 67.11, "upward_expansion": 86.72, "deceleration": 53.11, "rotation_down": 19.91, "downward_expansion": 8.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.330667, 23.049735, 22.323119, 21.700659 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 23.46, "trend_reference": 21.002628, "distance_from_trend": 0.117003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.640694, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.050708, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098714, "excess_performance": -0.08874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094664, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030507, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.894395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6586375, "relative_activity": 1.003683, "balance": 2.894395, "dry_up": 1.264308, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043455, "annualized_volatility": 0.20795, "from_high_reference": -0.035362, "from_low_reference": 0.425049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.002628, "fair_value_reference": 18.640694, "structural_low": 18.073374, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014575, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.023148, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.101558, "worst_return": -0.11868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028772, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.030765, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.282145, "worst_return": -0.099181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000378, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.200745, "worst_return": -0.21359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 22.86, "volume": 5110382, "typical_volume": 6222148.85, "trend": 20.397349, "fair_value": 18.48158, "relative_strength": 0.138083, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.291115, "energy": 75.400324, "activity_lines": [ 22.70281, 22.210287, 21.471213, 21.009021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.95, "volume": 10874509, "typical_volume": 6460892.0, "trend": 20.533497, "fair_value": 18.520386, "relative_strength": 4.983543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.236832, "energy": 72.415808, "activity_lines": [ 22.831333, 22.420381, 21.679702, 21.173708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.18, "volume": 8719860, "typical_volume": 6639776.0, "trend": 20.678292, "fair_value": 18.557231, "relative_strength": 7.725547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.512659, "energy": 66.751026, "activity_lines": [ 22.992667, 22.638005, 21.893628, 21.34445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.59, "volume": 7005845, "typical_volume": 6678916.1, "trend": 20.850458, "fair_value": 18.598506, "relative_strength": 8.947663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.126474, "energy": 65.62855, "activity_lines": [ 23.205333, 22.878021, 22.12685, 21.532302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.46, "volume": 6586375, "typical_volume": 6562206.4, "trend": 21.002628, "fair_value": 18.640694, "relative_strength": 3.050708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.659443, "energy": 56.748152, "activity_lines": [ 23.330667, 23.049735, 22.323119, 21.700659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }