{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea65c8dc-546e-4b84-a652-c78776361374", "symbol": "P2AX34", "name": "Patria Investments Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.076, "architecture_energy": 53.245, "architecture_maturity": 84.423, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.97, "rotation_up": 28.47, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 58.02, "rotation_down": 57.1, "downward_expansion": 83.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.024565, 28.254787, 28.761578, 29.539886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.639999, "trend_reference": 31.480303, "distance_from_trend": -0.058459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.763471, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.843474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.171962, "excess_performance": -0.114914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109699, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.04, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 0.034843, "balance": 0.04, "dry_up": 4.310105, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034977, "annualized_volatility": 0.28969, "from_high_reference": -0.373423, "from_low_reference": 0.107938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.480303, "fair_value_reference": 32.763471, "structural_low": 26.752403, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067143, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.048242, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.207831, "worst_return": -0.144315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.150654, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.177916, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.297907, "worst_return": 0.003401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.275841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.190988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275841, "worst_return": 0.275841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"relative_strength": -27.285012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.490397, "energy": 73.474313, "activity_lines": [ 27.866133, 28.305723, 28.997537, 30.070434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.752403, "volume": 1006, "typical_volume": 143.85, "trend": 32.020357, "fair_value": 32.780226, "relative_strength": -28.727561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.396294, "energy": 83.691577, "activity_lines": [ 27.359829, 28.006405, 28.735317, 29.693457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.639999, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 143.5, "trend": 31.480303, "fair_value": 32.763471, "relative_strength": -17.843474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.07648, "energy": 53.24537, "activity_lines": [ 28.024565, 28.254787, 28.761578, 29.539886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }