{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea6669c9-3c1a-45fc-aa82-8ce2a1d397e0", "symbol": "XID", "name": "iShares India Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.376, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.443, "architecture_energy": 6.854, "architecture_maturity": 30.11, "architecture_confidence": 43.399, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.28, "rotation_up": 24.01, "upward_expansion": 24.25, "deceleration": 57.2, "rotation_down": 28.84, "downward_expansion": 53.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.861333, 43.883849, 43.45245, 43.48757 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 44.32, "trend_reference": 43.993019, "distance_from_trend": 0.007433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.652849, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050004, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.926606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066751, "excess_performance": -0.187172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007433, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041318, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024456, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054492, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.164417, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6200, "relative_activity": 0.340099, "balance": 1.164417, "dry_up": 0.693911, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023578, "annualized_volatility": 0.165603, "from_high_reference": -0.131863, "from_low_reference": 0.08256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.993019, "fair_value_reference": 46.652849, "structural_low": 40.939999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001443, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.027226, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.049991, "worst_return": -0.093668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034631, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073936, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.037364, "worst_return": -0.15534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012086, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03625, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.108366, "worst_return": -0.08666, "sufficient": 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11.238381, "activity_lines": [ 43.563057, 43.01295, 43.009847, 43.73076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 44.5, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 23895.0, "trend": 44.805151, "fair_value": 46.549374, "relative_strength": -14.89182, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.083384, "energy": 23.393102, "activity_lines": [ 44.02945, 43.324758, 43.111035, 43.70068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.139999, "volume": 14600, "typical_volume": 23475.0, "trend": 44.664103, "fair_value": 46.573838, "relative_strength": -15.089685, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.009351, "energy": 25.846208, "activity_lines": [ 44.227831, 43.543798, 43.189461, 43.657767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.619999, "volume": 15600, "typical_volume": 22515.0, "trend": 44.476919, "fair_value": 46.592663, "relative_strength": -15.383149, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.34229, "energy": 21.733534, "activity_lines": [ 44.092305, 43.637736, 43.234696, 43.590406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.939999, "volume": 13800, "typical_volume": 20650.0, "trend": 44.282352, "fair_value": 46.607634, "relative_strength": -16.348214, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.971957, "energy": 14.114568, "activity_lines": [ 43.676666, 43.59491, 43.227741, 43.49125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.029999, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 19560.0, "trend": 44.124685, "fair_value": 46.628918, "relative_strength": -13.275613, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.238247, "energy": 8.120937, "activity_lines": [ 43.703332, 43.729924, 43.329738, 43.474969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.32, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 18230.0, "trend": 43.993019, "fair_value": 46.652849, "relative_strength": -14.926606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.443094, "energy": 6.854003, "activity_lines": [ 43.861333, 43.883849, 43.45245, 43.48757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }