{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea6a2d5a-921a-4712-a429-ab029c83ef60", "symbol": "000402", "name": "Financial Street Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.757, "architecture_energy": 64.232, "architecture_maturity": 16.21, "architecture_confidence": 94.137, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.03, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 39.14, "rotation_down": 64.86, "downward_expansion": 87.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.44, 2.481818, 2.646143, 2.690839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.46, "trend_reference": 2.741333, "distance_from_trend": -0.102626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.136923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.215792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.62311, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130742, "excess_performance": -0.138142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.215792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190348544, "relative_activity": 0.797041, "balance": 0.414849, "dry_up": 0.845726, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080363, "annualized_volatility": 0.406919, "from_high_reference": -0.295129, "from_low_reference": 0.046809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.741333, "fair_value_reference": 3.136923, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.003094, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.472222, "median_excess_return": -0.002264, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.146953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.059885, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.052342, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.393162, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.078534, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.054887, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.097643, "worst_return": -0.318807, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2.36, "volume": 168307041, "typical_volume": 230017387.5, "trend": 2.760333, "fair_value": 3.164231, "relative_strength": -18.323499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.524907, "energy": 73.560178, "activity_lines": [ 2.418667, 2.542182, 2.695048, 2.727054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.49, "volume": 213927400, "typical_volume": 236615407.45, "trend": 2.751, "fair_value": 3.150962, "relative_strength": -11.842441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.380876, "energy": 68.581652, "activity_lines": [ 2.432, 2.510727, 2.671429, 2.709613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.46, "volume": 190348544, "typical_volume": 238819060.15, "trend": 2.741333, "fair_value": 3.136923, "relative_strength": -16.62311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.756746, "energy": 64.231937, "activity_lines": [ 2.44, 2.481818, 2.646143, 2.690839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }