{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea6d1be6-0d74-4348-995d-dc95fa61150f", "symbol": "JSE", "name": "Jadestone Energy plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.875, "architecture_energy": 23.508, "architecture_maturity": 10.198, "architecture_confidence": 60.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.36, "rotation_up": 43.53, "upward_expansion": 62.2, "deceleration": 61.8, "rotation_down": 14.06, "downward_expansion": 7.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.302, 0.297264, 0.298912, 0.292518 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.3, "trend_reference": 0.280817, "distance_from_trend": 0.068313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.267796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.779446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.315789, "excess_performance": 0.264554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059496, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087794, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.315789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.735978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3419436, "relative_activity": 0.558029, "balance": 1.735978, "dry_up": 0.792057, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092179, "annualized_volatility": 0.491151, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 0.764706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.280817, "fair_value_reference": 0.267796, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117348, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050264, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.061728, "worst_return": -0.202238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.209877, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.141379, "worst_return": -0.316547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.232228, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.245747, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.038849, "worst_return": -0.692118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.315108, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.418457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01751, "worst_return": -0.744875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059322, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010417, "active": false }, { 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"close": 0.2925, "volume": 5036697, "typical_volume": 8170856.9, "trend": 0.2734, "fair_value": 0.26738, "relative_strength": 10.335849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.276628, "energy": 14.793614, "activity_lines": [ 0.286367, 0.294564, 0.29504, 0.286633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 4396518, "typical_volume": 7851625.25, "trend": 0.276567, "fair_value": 0.267187, "relative_strength": 18.614062, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.641627, "energy": 26.963158, "activity_lines": [ 0.2986, 0.297936, 0.297807, 0.28964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3, "volume": 6561301, "typical_volume": 7273309.05, "trend": 0.278817, "fair_value": 0.267508, "relative_strength": 9.501553, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.931353, "energy": 20.898274, "activity_lines": [ 0.301167, 0.297345, 0.298407, 0.291152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3, "volume": 3419436, "typical_volume": 6127704.1, "trend": 0.280817, "fair_value": 0.267796, "relative_strength": 8.779446, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.875018, "energy": 23.508346, "activity_lines": [ 0.302, 0.297264, 0.298912, 0.292518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }