{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea6f90ee-f127-429e-b2af-8d9e4052576e", "symbol": "MNKD", "name": "MannKind Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.586, "architecture_energy": 19.289, "architecture_maturity": 41.23, "architecture_confidence": 53.554, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.15, "rotation_up": 32.37, "upward_expansion": 34.82, "deceleration": 44.97, "rotation_down": 31.48, "downward_expansion": 21.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.048667, 4.068727, 3.797381, 3.662903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.11, "trend_reference": 3.799333, "distance_from_trend": 0.081769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.727083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.789579, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288927, "excess_performance": -0.476381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.793642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31573940, "relative_activity": 1.205828, "balance": 1.793642, "dry_up": 0.956291, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115641, "annualized_volatility": 1.001815, "from_high_reference": -0.368664, "from_low_reference": 0.843049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.799333, "fair_value_reference": 4.727083, "structural_low": 2.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029514, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.045541, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.216667, "worst_return": -0.182857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025271, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.06177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.340476, "worst_return": -0.346667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.137045, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.398957, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.391111, "worst_return": -0.528881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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4.03, "volume": 21113394, "typical_volume": 27480732.2, "trend": 3.969, "fair_value": 4.742788, "relative_strength": -18.820341, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.437492, "energy": 40.650476, "activity_lines": [ 4.152667, 3.980909, 3.590429, 3.636452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.13, "volume": 25357557, "typical_volume": 26823316.25, "trend": 3.913667, "fair_value": 4.739583, "relative_strength": -15.191596, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.481476, "energy": 32.516657, "activity_lines": [ 4.148, 4.040545, 3.673667, 3.646839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.91, "volume": 22114917, "typical_volume": 26482906.1, "trend": 3.857333, "fair_value": 4.734391, "relative_strength": -19.907357, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.381969, "energy": 21.324214, "activity_lines": [ 4.057333, 4.041273, 3.728714, 3.646602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.11, "volume": 31573940, "typical_volume": 26184444.3, "trend": 3.799333, "fair_value": 4.727083, "relative_strength": -19.789579, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.585928, "energy": 19.288723, "activity_lines": [ 4.048667, 4.068727, 3.797381, 3.662903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }