{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea6f9a18-0c47-4e03-819f-d32bf616d775", "symbol": "600708", "name": "Bright Real Estate Group Co.,Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.977, "architecture_energy": 31.428, "architecture_maturity": 30.403, "architecture_confidence": 90.239, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.92, "rotation_up": 21.23, "upward_expansion": 3.33, "deceleration": 51.28, "rotation_down": 42.8, "downward_expansion": 72.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.098667, 3.106545, 3.202333, 3.328473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.19, "trend_reference": 3.508667, "distance_from_trend": -0.090823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.966139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.97053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223844, "excess_performance": -0.18064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134753195, "relative_activity": 1.145227, "balance": 0.42091, "dry_up": 0.951091, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117917, "annualized_volatility": 0.443051, "from_high_reference": -0.321277, "from_low_reference": 0.139286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.508667, "fair_value_reference": 2.966139, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.026786, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015851, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.314554, "worst_return": -0.117391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.020922, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.242459, "worst_return": -0.128743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038627, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.040535, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.195196, "worst_return": -0.158878, "sufficient": true }, { 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3.339571, 3.469892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.32, "volume": 137169615, "typical_volume": 132492948.0, "trend": 3.561, "fair_value": 2.943222, "relative_strength": -9.145684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.594347, "energy": 31.26207, "activity_lines": [ 3.188667, 3.191636, 3.321238, 3.45428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.06, "volume": 149555666, "typical_volume": 129471453.75, "trend": 3.558667, "fair_value": 2.949222, "relative_strength": -10.700065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.727458, "energy": 24.714912, "activity_lines": [ 3.172667, 3.149818, 3.282952, 3.421957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.91, "volume": 95429675, "typical_volume": 124646323.55, "trend": 3.548333, "fair_value": 2.954071, "relative_strength": -15.817675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.421685, "energy": 34.670933, "activity_lines": [ 3.095333, 3.096182, 3.236286, 3.380108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 67901956, "typical_volume": 119888144.6, "trend": 3.532, "fair_value": 2.960264, "relative_strength": -10.698417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.981415, "energy": 32.333639, "activity_lines": [ 3.074, 3.089636, 3.212476, 3.350538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.19, "volume": 134753195, "typical_volume": 117665013.15, "trend": 3.508667, "fair_value": 2.966139, "relative_strength": -9.97053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.977334, "energy": 31.427972, "activity_lines": [ 3.098667, 3.106545, 3.202333, 3.328473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }