{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea714f3e-5c6f-44c0-8b21-94bdbad5dda1", "symbol": "9950", "name": "Eminent Luggage Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.834, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.444, "architecture_energy": 26.551, "architecture_maturity": 8.629, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 18.98, "upward_expansion": 2.66, "deceleration": 48.43, "rotation_down": 44.69, "downward_expansion": 73.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.353333, 10.4, 10.585952, 10.658065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.35, "trend_reference": 10.701667, "distance_from_trend": -0.032861, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.630449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.708729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050459, "excess_performance": -0.491831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032861, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140100, "relative_activity": 0.1855, "balance": 0.3729, "dry_up": 0.278283, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070234, "annualized_volatility": 0.307371, "from_high_reference": -0.263345, "from_low_reference": 0.078125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.701667, "fair_value_reference": 14.630449, "structural_low": 9.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.016026, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045975, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.188679, "worst_return": -0.177057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104663, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.23192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004291, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.180346, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.263326, "worst_return": -0.269327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.551402, "worst_return": -0.309227, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136461, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.261845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169139, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009756, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 18.4, "volume": 387000, "typical_volume": 543800.0, "trend": 13.96, "fair_value": 11.475, "relative_strength": 32.773118, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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14.344357, "activity_lines": [ 10.583333, 10.727273, 10.820714, 10.790538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.65, "volume": 296000, "typical_volume": 795279.9, "trend": 10.731667, "fair_value": 14.882372, "relative_strength": -33.402394, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.50088, "energy": 14.797343, "activity_lines": [ 10.58, 10.701818, 10.805, 10.785699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.1, "volume": 538000, "typical_volume": 786290.05, "trend": 10.72, "fair_value": 14.819551, "relative_strength": -31.82156, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.912459, "energy": 34.35124, "activity_lines": [ 10.416667, 10.575455, 10.736429, 10.744946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.45, "volume": 172370, "typical_volume": 774608.55, "trend": 10.715, "fair_value": 14.775, "relative_strength": -29.893598, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.014788, "energy": 26.356163, "activity_lines": [ 10.413333, 10.520909, 10.703571, 10.727527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.25, "volume": 349111, "typical_volume": 773249.1, "trend": 10.708333, "fair_value": 14.72468, "relative_strength": -29.239869, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.617644, "energy": 37.874257, "activity_lines": [ 10.35, 10.450909, 10.652857, 10.697527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.45, "volume": 179120, "typical_volume": 759802.1, "trend": 10.703333, "fair_value": 14.678205, "relative_strength": -28.561916, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.765417, "energy": 35.053678, "activity_lines": [ 10.363333, 10.430909, 10.623571, 10.68086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.35, "volume": 140100, "typical_volume": 755256.6, "trend": 10.701667, "fair_value": 14.630449, "relative_strength": -30.708729, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.443902, "energy": 26.550792, "activity_lines": [ 10.353333, 10.4, 10.585952, 10.658065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }