{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ea7b9cf1-1bf5-4350-a918-9d991b6c70b4",
    "symbol": "KWR",
    "name": "Quaker Chemical Corporation",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 73.821,
    "architecture_energy": 54.867,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.795,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.82,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.09,
        "rotation_up": 59.31,
        "upward_expansion": 80.04,
        "deceleration": 53.82,
        "rotation_down": 16.57,
        "downward_expansion": 9.04
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        159.667461,
        156.6734,
        150.858201,
        147.280276
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 169.95,
    "trend_reference": 146.516954,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.159934,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 150.797022,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127012,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.406689,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.003177,
    "excess_performance": -0.122448,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.159934,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035369,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.127012,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.167715,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.064067,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079048,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003177,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.185456,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 764090,
      "relative_activity": 0.968348,
      "balance": 3.185456,
      "dry_up": 0.871015,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.07594,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.46167,
      "from_high_reference": -0.067729,
      "from_low_reference": 0.520862
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 146.516954,
      "fair_value_reference": 150.797022,
      "structural_low": 111.745836,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.008157,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014731,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.17013,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.037706,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.038669,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.100244,
        "worst_return": -0.003159,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.006262,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005022,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.336005,
        "worst_return": -0.130305,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "median_return": -0.149471,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.166296,
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        "best_return": 0.278627,
        "worst_return": -0.199538,
        "sufficient": false
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031924,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029503,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "relative_strength": -2.675426,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 151.802008,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 160.618243,
        "volume": 680450,
        "typical_volume": 841604.9,
        "trend": 144.291729,
        "fair_value": 151.625109,
        "relative_strength": 4.99589,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 943578,
        "typical_volume": 863487.65,
        "trend": 144.613849,
        "fair_value": 151.354581,
        "relative_strength": -4.659535,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 31.013472,
        "energy": 48.793032,
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          153.628485,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 150.61,
        "volume": 504547,
        "typical_volume": 820634.25,
        "trend": 144.838297,
        "fair_value": 151.109193,
        "relative_strength": -1.356194,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.329063,
        "energy": 43.010419,
        "activity_lines": [
          153.029838,
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          144.305631
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 151.43,
        "volume": 598185,
        "typical_volume": 810214.9,
        "trend": 145.101663,
        "fair_value": 150.853793,
        "relative_strength": -0.357781,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.287583,
        "energy": 22.786455,
        "activity_lines": [
          152.262149,
          151.114117,
          146.273249,
          144.730902
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 160.52,
        "volume": 882330,
        "typical_volume": 806056.85,
        "trend": 145.853046,
        "fair_value": 150.756612,
        "relative_strength": 4.232424,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.166223,
        "energy": 25.123917,
        "activity_lines": [
          154.407471,
          153.206304,
          148.217936,
          145.725633
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 169.95,
        "volume": 764090,
        "typical_volume": 789065.7,
        "trend": 146.516954,
        "fair_value": 150.797022,
        "relative_strength": 6.406689,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.820674,
        "energy": 54.866571,
        "activity_lines": [
          159.667461,
          156.6734,
          150.858201,
          147.280276
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}