{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea7f68c2-ed50-49e2-b42a-45915e99d934", "symbol": "1320", "name": "Saudi Steel Pipes Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.993, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.711, "architecture_energy": 30.57, "architecture_maturity": 35.578, "architecture_confidence": 84.919, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.57, "rotation_up": 14.19, "upward_expansion": 45.49, "deceleration": 73.63, "rotation_down": 50.93, "downward_expansion": 41.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.024667, 49.708028, 51.445605, 49.955309 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.599998, "trend_reference": 47.258671, "distance_from_trend": 0.007223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.10474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.528357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.19598, "excess_performance": 0.227809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06858, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025284, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.19598, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.490474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1104678, "relative_activity": 0.632521, "balance": 1.490474, "dry_up": 0.605432, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071961, "annualized_volatility": 0.373911, "from_high_reference": -0.195224, "from_low_reference": 0.329609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.258671, "fair_value_reference": 51.10474, "structural_low": 35.799999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007374, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03503, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.065886, "worst_return": -0.121678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106384, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171561, "worst_return": -0.142623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004997, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.472952, "worst_return": -0.091803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 3.267233, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.762704, "energy": 17.725679, "activity_lines": [ 49.699334, 51.496957, 52.124845, 49.883524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.0, "volume": 1053771, "typical_volume": 1700804.7, "trend": 46.898005, "fair_value": 50.955929, "relative_strength": 3.477064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.489306, "energy": 25.026893, "activity_lines": [ 48.595334, 50.48681, 51.778844, 49.910019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.599998, "volume": 1104678, "typical_volume": 1746468.35, "trend": 47.258671, "fair_value": 51.10474, "relative_strength": 2.528357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.710583, "energy": 30.569686, "activity_lines": [ 48.024667, 49.708028, 51.445605, 49.955309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }