{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea80ca6e-e2eb-4072-9a05-83956c069224", "symbol": "MDNA", "name": "Medicenna Therapeutics Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.782, "architecture_energy": 63.185, "architecture_maturity": 91.465, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 53.05, "rotation_down": 54.23, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.362333, 0.375182, 0.428238, 0.499505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.375, "trend_reference": 0.607833, "distance_from_trend": -0.383055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.158173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.676214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.438978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.542683, "excess_performance": -0.663104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.383055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.676214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210229, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.61439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.542683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.166943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183400, "relative_activity": 0.517787, "balance": 0.166943, "dry_up": 0.611589, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159385, "annualized_volatility": 0.473214, "from_high_reference": -0.809645, "from_low_reference": 0.119403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.607833, "fair_value_reference": 1.158173, "structural_low": 0.335, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.292683, "directional_follow_through": 0.707317, "median_excess_return": -0.10416, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.546875, "worst_return": -0.247863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.204082, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.180962, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.147368, "worst_return": -0.494444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.363636, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.384549, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.684211, "worst_return": -0.510204, "sufficient": true 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"energy": 68.906565, "activity_lines": [ 0.377, 0.400545, 0.474619, 0.554817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.35, "volume": 141400, "typical_volume": 386025.0, "trend": 0.648, "fair_value": 1.160256, "relative_strength": -64.350192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.653692, "energy": 68.081179, "activity_lines": [ 0.363667, 0.387091, 0.455905, 0.534323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.36, "volume": 229000, "typical_volume": 365350.0, "trend": 0.626667, "fair_value": 1.158974, "relative_strength": -62.642682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.114829, "energy": 70.678155, "activity_lines": [ 0.359, 0.378909, 0.440381, 0.515742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.375, "volume": 183400, "typical_volume": 354200.0, "trend": 0.607833, "fair_value": 1.158173, "relative_strength": -61.438978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.782428, "energy": 63.185021, "activity_lines": [ 0.362333, 0.375182, 0.428238, 0.499505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }