{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea9162e6-0549-4dca-96b4-944da6faf00f", "symbol": "300310", "name": "Eastone Century Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.024, "architecture_energy": 52.55, "architecture_maturity": 77.098, "architecture_confidence": 91.604, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 27.02, "upward_expansion": 8.91, "deceleration": 60.64, "rotation_down": 51.32, "downward_expansion": 82.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.246667, 4.264364, 4.728143, 5.136602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.46, "trend_reference": 5.665667, "distance_from_trend": -0.212802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.724615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.328643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319084, "excess_performance": -0.326484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220908, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172737011, "relative_activity": 1.146539, "balance": 0.67397, "dry_up": 1.022542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122111, "annualized_volatility": 0.418983, "from_high_reference": -0.403743, "from_low_reference": 0.170604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.665667, "fair_value_reference": 5.724615, "structural_low": 3.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.011935, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.220745, "worst_return": -0.210923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.081667, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008644, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.537604, "worst_return": -0.091116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079526, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019091, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.172932, "worst_return": -0.017241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084356, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098139, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09591, "active": 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5.842333, "fair_value": 5.725, "relative_strength": -34.223668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.595626, "energy": 86.200578, "activity_lines": [ 4.166667, 4.472182, 5.043238, 5.431806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.93, "volume": 166780231, "typical_volume": 159435239.05, "trend": 5.769333, "fair_value": 5.722244, "relative_strength": -35.007064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.577389, "energy": 80.058865, "activity_lines": [ 4.058, 4.310182, 4.896, 5.30843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 138775900, "typical_volume": 151140945.4, "trend": 5.714, "fair_value": 5.722628, "relative_strength": -26.004828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.742988, "energy": 61.257936, "activity_lines": [ 4.141333, 4.262, 4.80181, 5.217505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.46, "volume": 172737011, "typical_volume": 150659491.45, "trend": 5.665667, "fair_value": 5.724615, "relative_strength": -27.328643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.02432, "energy": 52.549976, "activity_lines": [ 4.246667, 4.264364, 4.728143, 5.136602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }