{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea930f32-4801-4a99-957b-acd85b083484", "symbol": "DFEM", "name": "DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST EMERGING MARKETS CORE EQUITY 2 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.793, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.185, "architecture_energy": 16.384, "architecture_maturity": 25.754, "architecture_confidence": 93.032, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.48, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 42.74, "deceleration": 84.03, "rotation_down": 40.56, "downward_expansion": 34.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.386, 38.885908, 39.110139, 38.494663 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.26, "trend_reference": 37.664567, "distance_from_trend": 0.042359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.578858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.608149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085976, "excess_performance": -0.039649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5134728, "relative_activity": 1.126956, "balance": 0.799215, "dry_up": 1.194958, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052769, "annualized_volatility": 0.263006, "from_high_reference": -0.072347, "from_low_reference": 0.312225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.664567, "fair_value_reference": 28.578858, "structural_low": 33.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004076, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.003393, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.079447, "worst_return": -0.064324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.034933, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038304, "worst_return": 0.031561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.071074, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071074, "worst_return": 0.071074, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 40.06233, 39.988272, 38.946922, 38.075525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.93, "volume": 4169662, "typical_volume": 4417670.45, "trend": 37.039294, "fair_value": 28.191948, "relative_strength": 4.019581, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.298966, "energy": 36.652124, "activity_lines": [ 40.047499, 40.002855, 39.135851, 38.278445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.77, "volume": 5235860, "typical_volume": 4506134.85, "trend": 37.214405, "fair_value": 28.287256, "relative_strength": -0.171537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.644274, "energy": 16.923497, "activity_lines": [ 39.214303, 39.602585, 39.107446, 38.325587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.74, "volume": 4750323, "typical_volume": 4484467.95, "trend": 37.367211, "fair_value": 28.377281, "relative_strength": 0.20758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.483833, "energy": 16.745818, "activity_lines": [ 38.543333, 39.24835, 39.075849, 38.359497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.7, "volume": 6657352, "typical_volume": 4570125.4, "trend": 37.497712, "fair_value": 28.471482, "relative_strength": -1.088699, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.7999, "energy": 14.147291, "activity_lines": [ 38.134, 38.908871, 39.026318, 38.380967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.26, "volume": 5134728, "typical_volume": 4556281.75, "trend": 37.664567, "fair_value": 28.578858, "relative_strength": -0.608149, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.185416, "energy": 16.38445, "activity_lines": [ 38.386, 38.885908, 39.110139, 38.494663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }