{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea942898-891c-41e4-a423-7ea0b3d3c24d", "symbol": "NOTEK", "name": "Norditek Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.145, "architecture_energy": 43.653, "architecture_maturity": 40.332, "architecture_confidence": 85.48, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.31, "rotation_up": 20.49, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 58.65, "rotation_down": 54.88, "downward_expansion": 79.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.953333, 11.067273, 11.684524, 12.035914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 12.616667, "distance_from_trend": -0.136063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.128013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.613357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243056, "excess_performance": -0.30455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.585879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3870, "relative_activity": 0.389019, "balance": 1.585879, "dry_up": 0.541108, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092449, "annualized_volatility": 0.278139, "from_high_reference": -0.329231, "from_low_reference": 0.09 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.616667, "fair_value_reference": 12.128013, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.029167, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00072, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.350236, "worst_return": -0.308475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.144816, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.159339, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.234568, "worst_return": -0.223684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016461, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047669, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.05364, "worst_return": -0.360526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.35, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.537425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.35, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.343813, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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12.776989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.05, "volume": 690, "typical_volume": 11167.45, "trend": 13.078333, "fair_value": 12.316795, "relative_strength": -27.70801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.058024, "energy": 76.340375, "activity_lines": [ 11.226667, 11.935455, 12.297381, 12.641075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.25, "volume": 2476, "typical_volume": 10715.5, "trend": 13.001667, "fair_value": 12.264872, "relative_strength": -23.75664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.887371, "energy": 76.930618, "activity_lines": [ 11.15, 11.723636, 12.17381, 12.523118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.35, "volume": 6227, "typical_volume": 10125.25, "trend": 12.925, "fair_value": 12.215833, "relative_strength": -21.318729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.651422, "energy": 67.437272, "activity_lines": [ 11.186667, 11.563636, 12.072143, 12.416559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.95, "volume": 2446, "typical_volume": 9969.05, "trend": 12.838333, "fair_value": 12.186987, "relative_strength": -24.44998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.426555, "energy": 46.848502, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.36, 11.942381, 12.28914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.75, "volume": 8989, "typical_volume": 10000.65, "trend": 12.736667, "fair_value": 12.1575, "relative_strength": -25.99123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.672636, "energy": 45.178726, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 11.170909, 11.80119, 12.154409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.9, "volume": 3870, "typical_volume": 9948.1, "trend": 12.616667, "fair_value": 12.128013, "relative_strength": -25.613357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.144792, "energy": 43.652652, "activity_lines": [ 10.953333, 11.067273, 11.684524, 12.035914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }