{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea9904bf-30e3-4d60-8f99-dc768452de47", "symbol": "002747", "name": "Estun Automation Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.421, "architecture_energy": 26.208, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.781, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.85, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 58.96, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.43, "downward_expansion": 20.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.592667, 35.468727, 32.631095, 30.028387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.130001, "trend_reference": 27.361333, "distance_from_trend": 0.283929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.632449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.702658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.624261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.489822, "excess_performance": 0.482422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.283929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.702658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.492816, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.326243, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.453027, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.489822, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 438710070, "relative_activity": 1.827213, "balance": 0.675729, "dry_up": 1.83516, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159649, "annualized_volatility": 0.70102, "from_high_reference": -0.283061, "from_low_reference": 0.828735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.361333, "fair_value_reference": 20.632449, "structural_low": 19.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013709, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028769, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132837, "worst_return": -0.241087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00548, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.217368, "worst_return": -0.128055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042925, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042706, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.360149, "worst_return": -0.333931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140211, "active": false }, { 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59.897132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 97.797905, "energy": 98.094059, "activity_lines": [ 37.832666, 33.901636, 28.981048, 27.152731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.779999, "volume": 720768681, "typical_volume": 167704610.55, "trend": 25.906667, "fair_value": 20.430256, "relative_strength": 56.752034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.634433, "energy": 90.718142, "activity_lines": [ 40.147333, 36.091636, 30.568905, 28.284839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.189999, "volume": 482875307, "typical_volume": 187700709.8, "trend": 26.446333, "fair_value": 20.496514, "relative_strength": 52.160355, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.695341, "energy": 67.099973, "activity_lines": [ 40.147999, 37.066909, 31.632, 29.077312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.040001, "volume": 457424799, "typical_volume": 206064023.4, "trend": 26.741667, "fair_value": 20.520227, "relative_strength": 18.795017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.56456, "energy": 55.506262, "activity_lines": [ 37.034, 36.303818, 31.850143, 29.309161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.74, "volume": 383461925, "typical_volume": 221261416.95, "trend": 26.980333, "fair_value": 20.553636, "relative_strength": 18.998224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.029471, "energy": 30.181544, "activity_lines": [ 34.250667, 35.402363, 32.002524, 29.502602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.130001, "volume": 438710070, "typical_volume": 240097872.3, "trend": 27.361333, "fair_value": 20.632449, "relative_strength": 32.624261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.42148, "energy": 26.208335, "activity_lines": [ 33.592667, 35.468727, 32.631095, 30.028387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }