{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea999729-be37-41b7-921d-b20d99c5d66d", "symbol": "LIO", "name": "Liontrust Asset Management PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.602, "architecture_energy": 22.62, "architecture_maturity": 65.194, "architecture_confidence": 79.938, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.14, "rotation_up": 29.08, "upward_expansion": 60.39, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 32.41, "downward_expansion": 21.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 303.7, 311.287565, 302.042314, 290.325862 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 305.0, "trend_reference": 276.337133, "distance_from_trend": 0.103724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 453.965689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.264311, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.30621, "excess_performance": 0.254975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155861, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.30621, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.922819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 805944, "relative_activity": 0.843417, "balance": 0.922819, "dry_up": 1.062263, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085462, "annualized_volatility": 0.41544, "from_high_reference": -0.20758, "from_low_reference": 0.367713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 276.337133, "fair_value_reference": 453.965689, "structural_low": 231.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045543, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.051758, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.101538, "worst_return": -0.175992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.184978, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.218756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00691, "worst_return": -0.298961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.405684, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.402591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.246357, "worst_return": -0.414095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.326211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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327.514807, 313.876401, 293.511152, 281.99781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 337.0, "volume": 984461, "typical_volume": 967755.95, "trend": 272.737133, "fair_value": 460.696431, "relative_strength": 8.301708, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.999293, "energy": 85.932373, "activity_lines": [ 333.509967, 320.136292, 299.074895, 286.301866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 294.0, "volume": 1121059, "typical_volume": 960817.7, "trend": 273.620466, "fair_value": 458.401721, "relative_strength": -5.900156, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.310667, "energy": 52.484669, "activity_lines": [ 322.66524, 317.330878, 300.233876, 287.673664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 284.0, "volume": 1148804, "typical_volume": 973304.7, "trend": 274.270466, "fair_value": 456.151545, "relative_strength": -9.482209, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.251229, "energy": 28.277661, "activity_lines": [ 308.3, 312.432821, 300.230952, 288.343312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 305.0, "volume": 805944, "typical_volume": 955569.9, "trend": 276.337133, "fair_value": 453.965689, "relative_strength": -2.264311, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.601757, "energy": 22.619652, "activity_lines": [ 303.7, 311.287565, 302.042314, 290.325862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }