{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea9c56dd-4dd9-4f7b-b3d3-ae6b0e6c0f2e", "symbol": "SSTI", "name": "Shotspotter Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.128, "architecture_energy": 19.689, "architecture_maturity": 45.952, "architecture_confidence": 76.647, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.45, "rotation_up": 30.74, "upward_expansion": 61.38, "deceleration": 87.55, "rotation_down": 24.57, "downward_expansion": 13.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.082667, 8.226545, 7.861762, 7.604538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 7.388333, "distance_from_trend": 0.07196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.308077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.42738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131429, "excess_performance": -0.056025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404873, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.963709, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471408, "relative_activity": 0.895322, "balance": 1.963709, "dry_up": 0.676698, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133322, "annualized_volatility": 0.385322, "from_high_reference": -0.406297, "from_low_reference": 0.370242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.388333, "fair_value_reference": 13.308077, "structural_low": 6.04, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.032155, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.046966, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.380825, "worst_return": -0.244574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095886, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063717, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.143805, "worst_return": -0.339655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.21979, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.406672, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.073236, "worst_return": -0.501724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.42069, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.56511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.335219, "worst_return": -0.441003, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113482, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.094603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135693, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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7.579818, 7.22819, 7.219806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.08, "volume": 524485, "typical_volume": 666980.85, "trend": 7.357333, "fair_value": 13.760192, "relative_strength": -11.40883, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.477735, "energy": 66.088224, "activity_lines": [ 8.354667, 7.898909, 7.415667, 7.335871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.65, "volume": 373678, "typical_volume": 639451.4, "trend": 7.392667, "fair_value": 13.662821, "relative_strength": -15.741713, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.45133, "energy": 68.116138, "activity_lines": [ 8.523333, 8.096727, 7.555048, 7.419269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.59, "volume": 267946, "typical_volume": 607468.95, "trend": 7.417, "fair_value": 13.571346, "relative_strength": -11.434839, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.853027, "energy": 63.945039, "activity_lines": [ 8.600667, 8.253455, 7.683762, 7.496516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.27, "volume": 365118, "typical_volume": 559749.65, "trend": 7.424333, "fair_value": 13.481218, "relative_strength": -12.212064, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.648273, "energy": 50.750039, "activity_lines": [ 8.534, 8.323091, 7.775857, 7.551548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.75, "volume": 320717, "typical_volume": 536283.05, "trend": 7.424333, "fair_value": 13.38609, "relative_strength": -17.179868, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.989613, "energy": 27.830396, "activity_lines": [ 8.265333, 8.268182, 7.813333, 7.572559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.92, "volume": 471408, "typical_volume": 526523.2, "trend": 7.388333, "fair_value": 13.308077, "relative_strength": -18.42738, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.12807, "energy": 19.688948, "activity_lines": [ 8.082667, 8.226545, 7.861762, 7.604538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }