{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaa11251-83a2-4a37-8211-0d03347da79b", "symbol": "4813", "name": "Access Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.514, "architecture_energy": 18.223, "architecture_maturity": 98.123, "architecture_confidence": 69.256, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.9, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 22.29, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 29.58, "downward_expansion": 55.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 407.333333, 405.636364, 398.614286, 424.731183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 383.0, "trend_reference": 468.7, "distance_from_trend": -0.182846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 860.448718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.554883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.033726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.338515, "excess_performance": -0.556725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.554883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017558, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338515, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554052, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3738400, "relative_activity": 2.997098, "balance": 0.554052, "dry_up": 2.381608, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107652, "annualized_volatility": 0.420281, "from_high_reference": -0.445731, "from_low_reference": 0.204403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 468.7, "fair_value_reference": 860.448718, "structural_low": 318.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.033861, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.257692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013871, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.009789, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.161692, "worst_return": -0.267568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.074992, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043479, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.191677, "worst_return": -0.36803, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.212859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272657, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.085746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.23225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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868.410256, "relative_strength": -31.687033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.202324, "energy": 33.792971, "activity_lines": [ 426.6, 395.054545, 406.671429, 440.43871 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 421.0, "volume": 3358900, "typical_volume": 1055520.0, "trend": 483.0, "fair_value": 865.74359, "relative_strength": -31.805242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.636054, "energy": 29.446493, "activity_lines": [ 430.533333, 403.490909, 405.238095, 435.993548 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 401.0, "volume": 1650500, "typical_volume": 1091655.0, "trend": 475.566667, "fair_value": 863.076923, "relative_strength": -33.006398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.765672, "energy": 21.521563, "activity_lines": [ 422.6, 406.727273, 402.47619, 430.703226 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 383.0, "volume": 3738400, "typical_volume": 1247340.0, "trend": 468.7, "fair_value": 860.448718, "relative_strength": -36.033726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.514343, "energy": 18.223311, "activity_lines": [ 407.333333, 405.636364, 398.614286, 424.731183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }