{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaa70b64-830e-4dbc-99cb-aad74cf6b657", "symbol": "FEUR", "name": "Fidelity Europe Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.275, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.901, "architecture_energy": 85.555, "architecture_maturity": 28.116, "architecture_confidence": 75.92, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 71.74, "upward_expansion": 91.32, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 18.24, "downward_expansion": 17.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 10.918327, 10.718324, 10.56594 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.214, "trend_reference": 10.417567, "distance_from_trend": 0.076451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.001122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245845, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.534848, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092557, "excess_performance": -0.078335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064895, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 35.234155, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69823, "relative_activity": 5.638139, "balance": 35.234155, "dry_up": 1.753243, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015036, "annualized_volatility": 0.13278, "from_high_reference": -0.003023, "from_low_reference": 0.219576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.417567, "fair_value_reference": 9.001122, "structural_low": 9.578, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.002139, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.004697, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.044539, "worst_return": -0.042218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02009, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.030993, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.060102, "worst_return": -0.015844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055884, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.055426, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.090173, "worst_return": -0.005712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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10.818, "volume": 2443, "typical_volume": 9165.2, "trend": 10.2836, "fair_value": 8.914199, "relative_strength": -6.623358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.477619, "energy": 86.372906, "activity_lines": [ 10.822267, 10.705091, 10.492848, 10.400935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.784, "volume": 323, "typical_volume": 9098.0, "trend": 10.314733, "fair_value": 8.934724, "relative_strength": -5.417079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.727091, "energy": 83.055134, "activity_lines": [ 10.822133, 10.739527, 10.534948, 10.433219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.866, "volume": 772, "typical_volume": 9086.95, "trend": 10.3482, "fair_value": 8.955776, "relative_strength": -4.37826, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.480353, "energy": 81.592884, "activity_lines": [ 10.839467, 10.780473, 10.584048, 10.468785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.024, "volume": 15931, "typical_volume": 8901.9, "trend": 10.3839, "fair_value": 8.97784, "relative_strength": -3.478105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.654299, "energy": 72.33088, "activity_lines": [ 10.9008, 10.836836, 10.6447, 10.512385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.214, "volume": 69823, "typical_volume": 12384.05, "trend": 10.417567, "fair_value": 9.001122, "relative_strength": -4.534848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.900734, "energy": 85.555059, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 10.918327, 10.718324, 10.56594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }