{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaa86050-ea95-4895-b6d4-71b95f248bca", "symbol": "RSP", "name": "Rich Sport Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.523, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.244, "architecture_energy": 9.159, "architecture_maturity": 26.858, "architecture_confidence": 63.567, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.53, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 31.61, "deceleration": 43.5, "rotation_down": 22.48, "downward_expansion": 39.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.958, 0.954909, 0.946619, 0.953505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.95, "trend_reference": 0.983, "distance_from_trend": -0.033571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.540413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383282, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.667671, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.151786, "excess_performance": -0.344111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067362, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383282, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079572, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101868, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151786, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.114765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 267100, "relative_activity": 0.584944, "balance": 7.114765, "dry_up": 1.003559, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045344, "annualized_volatility": 0.262684, "from_high_reference": -0.280303, "from_low_reference": 0.104651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.983, "fair_value_reference": 1.540413, "structural_low": 0.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019761, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.110236, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.085859, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.037911, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.088351, "worst_return": -0.22314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062528, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236364, "worst_return": -0.206612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04415, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.118437, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.167347, "worst_return": -0.144443, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043103, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -24.667037, "energy": 14.707932, "activity_lines": [ 0.952667, 0.953273, 0.941714, 0.958043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.97, "volume": 119800, "typical_volume": 473795.0, "trend": 0.991333, "fair_value": 1.547681, "relative_strength": -23.417954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.449224, "energy": 6.468425, "activity_lines": [ 0.959333, 0.956182, 0.945143, 0.956172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.95, "volume": 267100, "typical_volume": 456625.0, "trend": 0.983, "fair_value": 1.540413, "relative_strength": -23.667671, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.244395, "energy": 9.159273, "activity_lines": [ 0.958, 0.954909, 0.946619, 0.953505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }