{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaaa53a1-92f0-4b93-97df-98ea648a7f70", "symbol": "TSTL", "name": "Tristel plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.484, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.49, "architecture_energy": 47.475, "architecture_maturity": 8.471, "architecture_confidence": 43.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.98, "rotation_up": 57.3, "upward_expansion": 55.76, "deceleration": 27.2, "rotation_down": 23.63, "downward_expansion": 23.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 416.766667, 407.809091, 400.295238, 397.428702 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 410.0, "trend_reference": 397.715413, "distance_from_trend": 0.030888, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 403.265237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.603788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040795, "excess_performance": -0.09203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030888, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040795, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208212, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 797968, "relative_activity": 1.52378, "balance": 0.208212, "dry_up": 1.411746, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06439, "annualized_volatility": 0.33091, "from_high_reference": -0.088889, "from_low_reference": 0.171878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 397.715413, "fair_value_reference": 403.265237, "structural_low": 350.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051948, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.058452, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.082192, "worst_return": -0.186127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129534, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032468, "worst_return": -0.187436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049925, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.092643, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.210748, "worst_return": -0.222652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.795606, "activity_lines": [ 392.833333, 391.363636, 390.169798, 392.680804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 380.0, "volume": 759593, "typical_volume": 573824.2, "trend": 397.175876, "fair_value": 401.889547, "relative_strength": -7.346225, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.831637, "energy": 17.774768, "activity_lines": [ 388.633333, 388.990909, 389.349189, 391.492169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 450.0, "volume": 417588, "typical_volume": 565704.6, "trend": 398.594533, "fair_value": 402.484863, "relative_strength": 8.260497, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.181304, "energy": 44.524438, "activity_lines": [ 408.566667, 399.845455, 395.290206, 394.900177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 426.0, "volume": 982045, "typical_volume": 555974.9, "trend": 398.213337, "fair_value": 402.926332, "relative_strength": 1.294916, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.050275, "energy": 49.146872, "activity_lines": [ 416.333333, 405.654545, 398.647619, 396.668272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 410.0, "volume": 797968, "typical_volume": 523676.65, "trend": 397.715413, "fair_value": 403.265237, "relative_strength": -2.603788, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.489564, "energy": 47.474869, "activity_lines": [ 416.766667, 407.809091, 400.295238, 397.428702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }