{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eab69807-06e5-4dfa-b643-24fd62aef7a3", "symbol": "300919", "name": "CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.0, "architecture_energy": 63.709, "architecture_maturity": 23.316, "architecture_confidence": 95.054, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.03, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 12.78, "deceleration": 45.74, "rotation_down": 59.27, "downward_expansion": 83.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.104666, 41.053416, 45.805784, 48.082651 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.41, "trend_reference": 50.661094, "distance_from_trend": -0.182607, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.60129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.058475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243929, "excess_performance": -0.251329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.507141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62058250, "relative_activity": 0.873282, "balance": 0.606189, "dry_up": 1.043977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098704, "annualized_volatility": 0.486366, "from_high_reference": -0.368905, "from_low_reference": 0.256066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.661094, "fair_value_reference": 38.60129, "structural_low": 35.509998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.005236, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.009937, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.369005, "worst_return": -0.163406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.056406, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.025825, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.394433, "worst_return": -0.153754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034149, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.373239, "worst_return": -0.205063, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 36.619999, "volume": 70047792, "typical_volume": 69955576.95, "trend": 51.021427, "fair_value": 38.591248, "relative_strength": -21.770396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.140622, "energy": 93.435849, "activity_lines": [ 39.828666, 43.484377, 48.483252, 50.067379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.959999, "volume": 91843917, "typical_volume": 70957598.55, "trend": 50.98676, "fair_value": 38.594659, "relative_strength": -14.972827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.413292, "energy": 86.282442, "activity_lines": [ 39.246666, 42.263538, 47.463382, 49.353738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 72803720, "typical_volume": 70858259.1, "trend": 50.825094, "fair_value": 38.596922, "relative_strength": -12.086673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.679869, "energy": 82.374592, "activity_lines": [ 39.49, 41.468058, 46.569083, 48.690076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.41, "volume": 62058250, "typical_volume": 71063249.0, "trend": 50.661094, "fair_value": 38.60129, "relative_strength": -15.058475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.999648, "energy": 63.708993, "activity_lines": [ 40.104666, 41.053416, 45.805784, 48.082651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }