{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eabd1cb9-9bd6-4513-90a7-6491c0662318", "symbol": "2892", "name": "First Financial Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.021, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.804, "architecture_energy": 64.537, "architecture_maturity": 31.158, "architecture_confidence": 58.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 74.27, "upward_expansion": 87.21, "deceleration": 56.1, "rotation_down": 12.63, "downward_expansion": 11.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.912656, 33.204206, 31.381305, 30.393864 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.349998, "trend_reference": 29.379592, "distance_from_trend": 0.135142, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.710221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.153446, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188282, "excess_performance": -0.25309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168048, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188282, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246031387, "relative_activity": 1.2077, "balance": 1.145855, "dry_up": 1.11579, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049848, "annualized_volatility": 0.215283, "from_high_reference": -0.06129, "from_low_reference": 0.273471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.379592, "fair_value_reference": 25.710221, "structural_low": 26.188269, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.003795, "positive_rate": 0.511628, "directional_follow_through": 0.511628, "median_excess_return": -0.006223, "regime_survival": 0.744186, "best_return": 0.096154, "worst_return": -0.065217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.00722, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034793, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.128319, "worst_return": -0.078712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.042211, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019879, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.168295, "worst_return": 0.007648, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-31", "close": 35.383049, "volume": 253958639, "typical_volume": 190724436.35, "trend": 29.028541, "fair_value": 25.574884, "relative_strength": -8.263151, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.574473, "energy": 92.827729, "activity_lines": [ 33.560138, 32.407983, 30.575904, 29.792055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.227684, "volume": 234026672, "typical_volume": 196557540.55, "trend": 29.221102, "fair_value": 25.645236, "relative_strength": -12.694359, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.838042, "energy": 82.900704, "activity_lines": [ 33.983773, 32.956781, 31.035987, 30.127483 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.349998, "volume": 246031387, "typical_volume": 203718929.6, "trend": 29.379592, "fair_value": 25.710221, "relative_strength": -17.153446, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.804289, "energy": 64.537116, "activity_lines": [ 33.912656, 33.204206, 31.381305, 30.393864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }