{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eac3a0ec-6585-415e-a2cc-74e470a85a47", "symbol": "RAA", "name": "RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.68, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.261, "architecture_energy": 15.123, "architecture_maturity": 32.876, "architecture_confidence": 61.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.17, "rotation_up": 44.01, "upward_expansion": 39.86, "deceleration": 30.0, "rotation_down": 26.63, "downward_expansion": 19.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 660.3, 656.927273, 655.148526, 655.265083 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 666.5, "trend_reference": 659.277781, "distance_from_trend": 0.010955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 698.199604, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045402, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.202041, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082551, "excess_performance": -0.256797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010955, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28, "relative_activity": 20.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034162, "annualized_volatility": 0.269384, "from_high_reference": -0.109849, "from_low_reference": 0.132654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 659.277781, "fair_value_reference": 698.199604, "structural_low": 588.441174, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016123, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.131531, "worst_return": -0.262254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071779, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.112613, "worst_return": -0.252723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094134, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136965, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094812, "worst_return": -0.256157, "sufficient": false }, { 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-40.963296, "energy": 25.264447, "activity_lines": [ 647.166667, 651.554545, 650.179918, 654.131093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 648.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.6, "trend": 657.80824, "fair_value": 697.471464, "relative_strength": -16.964972, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.626216, "energy": 26.936449, "activity_lines": [ 646.2, 650.572727, 650.358293, 653.559733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 677.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.6, "trend": 659.258828, "fair_value": 697.942549, "relative_strength": -12.786927, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.292761, "energy": 3.307237, "activity_lines": [ 656.033333, 654.909091, 653.317816, 654.797911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 666.5, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 1.4, "trend": 659.277781, "fair_value": 698.199604, "relative_strength": -16.202041, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.261058, "energy": 15.122575, "activity_lines": [ 660.3, 656.927273, 655.148526, 655.265083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }