{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eac48441-e0e1-4303-9f22-fbedb09887c7", "symbol": "ABMINTLLTD", "name": "ABM International Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.061, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.251, "architecture_energy": 7.915, "architecture_maturity": 11.755, "architecture_confidence": 61.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.65, "rotation_up": 30.88, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 44.64, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 32.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.792, 41.545273, 42.531191, 42.971463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 41.610001, "trend_reference": 42.873, "distance_from_trend": -0.029459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.732628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.124876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033, "excess_performance": 0.010709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210925, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030904, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051249, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008044, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.384315, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4347, "relative_activity": 1.051893, "balance": 2.384315, "dry_up": 2.650664, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094559, "annualized_volatility": 0.507925, "from_high_reference": -0.337947, "from_low_reference": 0.223824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.873, "fair_value_reference": 52.732628, "structural_low": 36.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.051732, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.051523, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.186441, "worst_return": -0.34053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.169291, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.156562, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.583347, "worst_return": -0.35745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.137246, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.074305, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.418432, "worst_return": -0.226567, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084262, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.382954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20777, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.599998, "volume": 6919, "typical_volume": 3175.35, "trend": 50.311667, "fair_value": 73.333974, "relative_strength": -46.843305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.292681, "energy": 39.36439, "activity_lines": [ 41.146002, 42.184365, 43.283382, 43.27742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.16, "volume": 833, "typical_volume": 2321.3, "trend": 42.812334, "fair_value": 52.762821, "relative_strength": -9.289324, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.453899, "energy": 39.381299, "activity_lines": [ 40.794001, 41.662546, 42.949001, 43.102818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.02, "volume": 22805, "typical_volume": 3371.9, "trend": 42.753334, "fair_value": 52.717756, "relative_strength": -4.462347, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.748812, "energy": 28.181013, "activity_lines": [ 40.807334, 41.363455, 42.700525, 42.987183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.709999, "volume": 15831, "typical_volume": 3935.75, "trend": 42.810334, "fair_value": 52.709487, "relative_strength": -0.112837, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.830571, "energy": 9.506566, "activity_lines": [ 41.748667, 41.64091, 42.709762, 43.048904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.610001, "volume": 4347, "typical_volume": 4132.55, "trend": 42.873, "fair_value": 52.732628, "relative_strength": -5.124876, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.250735, "energy": 7.915448, "activity_lines": [ 41.792, 41.545273, 42.531191, 42.971463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }