{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eac853bb-e584-4dfc-ba21-4ec1a8e7c726", "symbol": "HIG", "name": "Brompton Global Healthcare Income & Growth ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.462, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.455, "architecture_energy": 12.241, "architecture_maturity": 11.67, "architecture_confidence": 63.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.41, "rotation_up": 33.9, "upward_expansion": 35.7, "deceleration": 35.75, "rotation_down": 19.61, "downward_expansion": 41.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.414984, 7.3879, 7.28359, 7.31764 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.44, "trend_reference": 7.415111, "distance_from_trend": 0.003357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.144994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.71468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060287, "excess_performance": -0.180708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072792, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.192082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17200, "relative_activity": 0.884546, "balance": 1.192082, "dry_up": 0.712265, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0301, "annualized_volatility": 0.168502, "from_high_reference": -0.072866, "from_low_reference": 0.115252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.415111, "fair_value_reference": 7.144994, "structural_low": 6.83632, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001955, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.002442, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.100069, "worst_return": -0.104853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003532, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007569, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.137691, "worst_return": -0.108758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006296, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151487, "worst_return": -0.171904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034879, 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"energy": 22.830249, "activity_lines": [ 7.383426, 7.295383, 7.232919, 7.319279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.335806, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 21115.0, "trend": 7.431326, "fair_value": 7.133453, "relative_strength": -9.986529, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.021968, "energy": 21.215561, "activity_lines": [ 7.380472, 7.317585, 7.240216, 7.312316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.5, "volume": 21800, "typical_volume": 20245.0, "trend": 7.426147, "fair_value": 7.139923, "relative_strength": -7.322042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.621721, "energy": 18.98656, "activity_lines": [ 7.412376, 7.361902, 7.264663, 7.316746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.44, "volume": 17200, "typical_volume": 19445.0, "trend": 7.415111, "fair_value": 7.144994, "relative_strength": -10.71468, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.454669, "energy": 12.240978, "activity_lines": [ 7.414984, 7.3879, 7.28359, 7.31764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }