{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaca9b83-5b8b-4463-824c-a5aa736704ce", "symbol": "PJAN", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - January", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.867, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.823, "architecture_energy": 75.43, "architecture_maturity": 42.757, "architecture_confidence": 80.974, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.7, "rotation_up": 64.89, "upward_expansion": 90.08, "deceleration": 50.15, "rotation_down": 25.49, "downward_expansion": 14.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.949333, 49.747818, 49.397619, 48.849422 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.41, "trend_reference": 48.231033, "distance_from_trend": 0.045178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.420197, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.998128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063502, "excess_performance": -0.062123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020913, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.9e-05, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.08876, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600063, "relative_activity": 1.224812, "balance": 2.08876, "dry_up": 0.935691, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009608, "annualized_volatility": 0.067766, "from_high_reference": -0.001584, "from_low_reference": 0.128245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.231033, "fair_value_reference": 42.420197, "structural_low": 45.2323, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": 0.008594, "positive_rate": 0.729167, "directional_follow_through": 0.729167, "median_excess_return": -0.005138, "regime_survival": 0.854167, "best_return": 0.043796, "worst_return": -0.039569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.025983, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.017372, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.045427, "worst_return": -0.01789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.058314, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.035338, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.079227, "worst_return": -0.074227, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.018152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 521176.35, "trend": 47.8587, "fair_value": 42.04914, "relative_strength": -4.338178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.970483, "energy": 77.996452, "activity_lines": [ 49.533333, 49.409636, 48.831048, 48.366591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.64, "volume": 836753, "typical_volume": 540045.5, "trend": 47.950033, "fair_value": 42.140229, "relative_strength": -3.082636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.19268, "energy": 78.961919, "activity_lines": [ 49.595333, 49.470909, 48.970429, 48.481514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.56, "volume": 174375, "typical_volume": 502446.75, "trend": 48.036033, "fair_value": 42.229909, "relative_strength": -2.560576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.517748, "energy": 75.556343, "activity_lines": [ 49.607333, 49.505273, 49.091048, 48.585383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.85, "volume": 222474, "typical_volume": 477108.8, "trend": 48.131367, "fair_value": 42.323435, "relative_strength": -2.913486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.418389, "energy": 72.176358, "activity_lines": [ 49.708667, 49.581636, 49.225952, 48.702413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.41, "volume": 600063, "typical_volume": 489922.5, "trend": 48.231033, "fair_value": 42.420197, "relative_strength": -4.998128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.823042, "energy": 75.430462, "activity_lines": [ 49.949333, 49.747818, 49.397619, 48.849422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }