{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "eacb51c6-c5a8-4893-802d-476318af8b92",
    "symbol": "600150",
    "name": "China CSSC Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 69.622,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -22.0,
    "architecture_energy": 34.808,
    "architecture_maturity": 3.754,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.112,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.78,
        "rotation_up": 25.42,
        "upward_expansion": 18.92,
        "deceleration": 41.38,
        "rotation_down": 49.74,
        "downward_expansion": 48.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        34.314797,
        34.600953,
        35.645712,
        35.654079
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 34.849998,
    "trend_reference": 35.631024,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.02192,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.882711,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028548,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.495815,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.039058,
    "excess_performance": 0.082262,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02192,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005314,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028548,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.207533,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014958,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.100057,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039058,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.420388,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 402876488,
      "relative_activity": 0.93262,
      "balance": 0.420388,
      "dry_up": 1.177105,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.076635,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.475762,
      "from_high_reference": -0.197374,
      "from_low_reference": 0.161667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 35.631024,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.882711,
      "structural_low": 30.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.05938,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013453,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.155549,
        "worst_return": -0.137127,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.050718,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048393,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.18779,
        "worst_return": -0.204291,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.226764,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.29342,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.410356,
        "worst_return": -0.042798,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.331344,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.31248,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.431255,
        "worst_return": 0.231433,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.075013,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025597,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.096948,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.032378,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02777,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.051999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.070977,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.057703,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0107,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011638,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.076289,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.126367,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-07-28",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 437197508.1,
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        "fair_value": 33.81382,
        "relative_strength": -5.851164,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": -28.94376,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 431296031.6,
        "trend": 35.528024,
        "fair_value": 33.830095,
        "relative_strength": -3.733639,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 21.792487,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.18,
        "volume": 460320007,
        "typical_volume": 432301685.1,
        "trend": 35.578024,
        "fair_value": 33.854772,
        "relative_strength": 2.086521,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.776446,
        "energy": 26.950297,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.849998,
        "volume": 402876488,
        "typical_volume": 431983354.4,
        "trend": 35.631024,
        "fair_value": 33.882711,
        "relative_strength": -1.495815,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.999734,
        "energy": 34.808369,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}