{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "eacc0b5d-0126-4906-a138-9baeb947878a",
    "symbol": "DSWL",
    "name": "Deswell Industries Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 56.322,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -7.342,
    "architecture_energy": 7.9,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.603,
    "architecture_confidence": 43.389,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 65.3,
        "rotation_up": 23.33,
        "upward_expansion": 26.82,
        "deceleration": 65.3,
        "rotation_down": 41.82,
        "downward_expansion": 26.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.370667,
        3.425968,
        3.385162,
        3.364928
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 3.28,
    "trend_reference": 3.365157,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.025305,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 2.611089,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256181,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -17.051236,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.088889,
    "excess_performance": -0.276343,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025305,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001263,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.256181,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06128,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.170512,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026611,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088889,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.00988,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 23451,
      "relative_activity": 0.403438,
      "balance": 1.00988,
      "dry_up": 0.769471,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.088122,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.338193,
      "from_high_reference": -0.247688,
      "from_low_reference": 0.208014
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.365157,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.611089,
      "structural_low": 2.94,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": 0.01987,
        "positive_rate": 0.55,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.55,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00707,
        "regime_survival": 0.55,
        "best_return": 0.254094,
        "worst_return": -0.112329,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.050935,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00541,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.849945,
        "worst_return": -0.141777,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.022807,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.04272,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.259379,
        "worst_return": -0.253012,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.072584,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00535,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.457113,
        "worst_return": -0.204425,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036036,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030101,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.037344,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.04869,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.01106,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.017094,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.254094,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.215827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.027548,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.095957,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.095993,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.089595,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.052478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 2.109636,
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        "typical_volume": 19502.65,
        "trend": 2.222244,
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      },
      {
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 3.303683,
        "volume": 30444,
        "typical_volume": 53685.0,
        "trend": 3.386561,
        "fair_value": 2.502656,
        "relative_strength": -9.72005,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 17.324542,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 50309.2,
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        "energy": 15.609974,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 72166,
        "typical_volume": 51504.65,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 3.177365,
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        "typical_volume": 51849.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 46811.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 2.799352,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 106803,
        "typical_volume": 48983.85,
        "trend": 3.36273,
        "fair_value": 2.561996,
        "relative_strength": -5.598801,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.360268,
        "energy": 34.911992,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.455497,
          3.378902,
          3.325622,
          3.341069
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 3.43,
        "volume": 185203,
        "typical_volume": 55579.1,
        "trend": 3.35849,
        "fair_value": 2.569789,
        "relative_strength": -12.325362,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 10.075889,
        "energy": 29.601475,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.474548,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 3.56,
        "volume": 70230,
        "typical_volume": 57768.9,
        "trend": 3.367157,
        "fair_value": 2.578416,
        "relative_strength": -10.623899,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.616171,
        "energy": 39.380578,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.525272,
          3.43268,
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          3.35841
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3.58,
        "volume": 55689,
        "typical_volume": 57690.4,
        "trend": 3.37649,
        "fair_value": 2.587519,
        "relative_strength": -6.271249,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.808296,
        "energy": 46.526057,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.557155,
          3.469454,
          3.381987,
          3.372142
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.48,
        "volume": 22433,
        "typical_volume": 56326.2,
        "trend": 3.375157,
        "fair_value": 2.596089,
        "relative_strength": -7.333575,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.691749,
        "energy": 34.484703,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.528213,
          3.483067,
          3.39722,
          3.37882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.25,
        "volume": 77338,
        "typical_volume": 58204.9,
        "trend": 3.370157,
        "fair_value": 2.603587,
        "relative_strength": -13.79185,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.606062,
        "energy": 13.639728,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.430667,
          3.450772,
          3.389786,
          3.370745
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.28,
        "volume": 23451,
        "typical_volume": 58127.95,
        "trend": 3.365157,
        "fair_value": 2.611089,
        "relative_strength": -17.051236,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -7.342165,
        "energy": 7.899908,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.370667,
          3.425968,
          3.385162,
          3.364928
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}