{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaccce89-acbe-4d1a-baf1-0e6ba760edb8", "symbol": "USC", "name": "US1 Critical Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.296, "architecture_energy": 40.852, "architecture_maturity": 27.476, "architecture_confidence": 67.11, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.51, "rotation_up": 63.29, "upward_expansion": 73.82, "deceleration": 45.19, "rotation_down": 11.29, "downward_expansion": 14.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.019533, 0.018345, 0.018352, 0.017778 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.017117, "distance_from_trend": 0.168452, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.01674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194716, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.218673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.011074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093717, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194716, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002187, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.959614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5158636, "relative_activity": 1.103627, "balance": 1.959614, "dry_up": 1.621738, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169231, "annualized_volatility": 1.276303, "from_high_reference": -0.555556, "from_low_reference": 1.857143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017117, "fair_value_reference": 0.01674, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.041681, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.428571, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.037368, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 1.9, "worst_return": -0.40625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.2, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.186038, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.058824, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.551724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"close": 0.017, "volume": 10182454, "typical_volume": 4196815.5, "trend": 0.016617, "fair_value": 0.016625, "relative_strength": -6.948606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.162278, "energy": 12.520842, "activity_lines": [ 0.016467, 0.0169, 0.017502, 0.017089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.021, "volume": 9180210, "typical_volume": 4504206.9, "trend": 0.01675, "fair_value": 0.01667, "relative_strength": 13.836797, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.201408, "energy": 23.990861, "activity_lines": [ 0.018067, 0.017509, 0.017881, 0.017372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 5800374, "typical_volume": 4622858.7, "trend": 0.01695, "fair_value": 0.016708, "relative_strength": 4.588193, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.196592, "energy": 34.050219, "activity_lines": [ 0.019, 0.017936, 0.018131, 0.017582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 5158636, "typical_volume": 4674256.6, "trend": 0.017117, "fair_value": 0.01674, "relative_strength": 0.218673, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.296259, "energy": 40.851747, "activity_lines": [ 0.019533, 0.018345, 0.018352, 0.017778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }