{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eacdc64f-5bf7-4595-ae6e-b2216a5e0e14", "symbol": "XMAE", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI AC World Screened UCITS ETF 2C - EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.628, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.278, "architecture_energy": 57.047, "architecture_maturity": 56.758, "architecture_confidence": 53.056, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.73, "rotation_up": 46.49, "upward_expansion": 77.73, "deceleration": 73.93, "rotation_down": 29.15, "downward_expansion": 9.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.290001, 53.193637, 52.705572, 51.725086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.490002, "trend_reference": 50.629333, "distance_from_trend": 0.076254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.96218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29855, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.671235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113177, "excess_performance": -0.057715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076254, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035728, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03227, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.932697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276, "relative_activity": 0.042416, "balance": 8.932697, "dry_up": 0.397799, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017293, "annualized_volatility": 0.155744, "from_high_reference": -0.008912, "from_low_reference": 0.223395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.629333, "fair_value_reference": 41.96218, "structural_low": 45.310001, "invalidation": "A 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087554, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.445399, "energy": 88.262697, "activity_lines": [ 53.262, 52.693636, 51.034286, 50.311538 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 52.93, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6998.75, "trend": 49.660833, "fair_value": 41.185737, "relative_strength": -3.807281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.880959, "energy": 78.15629, "activity_lines": [ 53.207333, 52.849455, 51.315143, 50.533613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 53.52, "volume": 2027, "typical_volume": 6586.15, "trend": 49.835667, "fair_value": 41.324455, "relative_strength": -5.436464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.157281, "energy": 70.79618, "activity_lines": [ 53.303333, 53.059455, 51.633238, 50.782591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.82, "volume": 1095, "typical_volume": 6513.8, "trend": 50.001333, "fair_value": 41.451891, "relative_strength": -6.162786, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.666048, "energy": 62.494406, "activity_lines": [ 53.168, 53.086364, 51.862667, 50.975129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.790001, "volume": 1945, "typical_volume": 6520.05, "trend": 50.161167, "fair_value": 41.577725, "relative_strength": -4.763899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.091351, "energy": 53.656026, "activity_lines": [ 53.028, 53.064364, 52.072548, 51.155043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.5, "volume": 4354, "typical_volume": 6624.95, "trend": 50.2985, "fair_value": 41.70109, "relative_strength": -5.000352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.262286, "energy": 45.511025, "activity_lines": [ 52.806, 52.978546, 52.239738, 51.305935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.75, "volume": 3779, "typical_volume": 6790.25, "trend": 50.444667, "fair_value": 41.826058, "relative_strength": -5.084075, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.620848, "energy": 36.423563, "activity_lines": [ 52.752, 52.932546, 52.403191, 51.464097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.490002, "volume": 276, "typical_volume": 6507.05, "trend": 50.629333, "fair_value": 41.96218, "relative_strength": -4.671235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.278155, "energy": 57.047057, "activity_lines": [ 53.290001, 53.193637, 52.705572, 51.725086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }