{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ead66edd-2c66-4c83-8ba0-2eb923b7e9c5", "symbol": "8123", "name": "Sinofortune Financial Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.027, "architecture_energy": 17.51, "architecture_maturity": 53.579, "architecture_confidence": 63.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.16, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 27.07, "deceleration": 52.91, "rotation_down": 19.45, "downward_expansion": 49.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.264, 0.255655, 0.231443, 0.285641 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.370733, "distance_from_trend": -0.244739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.56014, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.500125, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.424948, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.533333, "excess_performance": -0.518041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.500125, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187685, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.404249, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269421, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.533333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115168, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 830800, "relative_activity": 0.86651, "balance": 1.115168, "dry_up": 0.924996, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173901, "annualized_volatility": 1.815829, "from_high_reference": -0.575757, "from_low_reference": 3.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.370733, "fair_value_reference": 0.56014, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120506, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.347826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.288387, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.26087, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.350414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.52174, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.700001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.599999, "volume": 43700, "typical_volume": 17470.0, "trend": 0.615999, "fair_value": 0.779614, "relative_strength": 0.037387, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.618982, "energy": 45.964217, "activity_lines": [ 0.599999, 0.599999, 0.600285, 0.60658 ] }, { 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"relative_strength": -40.424948, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.026735, "energy": 17.51012, "activity_lines": [ 0.264, 0.255655, 0.231443, 0.285641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }