{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eae07aac-cef7-4273-bdd0-e4858b83e61f", "symbol": "291130", "name": "Korea Investment Trust Management - Kim Kindex MSCI Mexico ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.337, "architecture_energy": 70.43, "architecture_maturity": 7.558, "architecture_confidence": 81.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.77, "rotation_up": 8.75, "upward_expansion": 15.28, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 75.33, "downward_expansion": 90.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 18790.666667, 19103.454545, 19452.214286, 19495.666667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18660.0, "trend_reference": 19528.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.044473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15290.834441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.527718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044791, "excess_performance": -0.27462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1483, "relative_activity": 0.267145, "balance": 0.805422, "dry_up": 0.546268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035411, "annualized_volatility": 0.156041, "from_high_reference": -0.097679, "from_low_reference": 0.295717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19528.5, "fair_value_reference": 15290.834441, "structural_low": 17810.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041213, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037711, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.091188, "worst_return": 0.012483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081218, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.116177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185848, "worst_return": -0.089974, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119846, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.134161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293546, "worst_return": -0.064635, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.098819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.611545, "energy": 55.932003, "activity_lines": [ 18940.333333, 19257.454545, 19541.690476, 19549.989247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18660.0, "volume": 1483, "typical_volume": 5551.3, "trend": 19528.5, "fair_value": 15290.834441, "relative_strength": -17.527718, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.336879, "energy": 70.429611, "activity_lines": [ 18790.666667, 19103.454545, 19452.214286, 19495.666667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }