{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eae5a290-99e4-49e3-87a2-4b29d3b96701", "symbol": "UAA", "name": "Under Armour, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.479, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.153, "architecture_energy": 35.919, "architecture_maturity": 17.395, "architecture_confidence": 56.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.68, "rotation_up": 57.17, "upward_expansion": 76.82, "deceleration": 63.82, "rotation_down": 18.2, "downward_expansion": 5.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.837333, 5.794455, 5.534667, 5.497222 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.42, "trend_reference": 5.48765, "distance_from_trend": -0.012328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.225824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129432, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.31685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101906, "excess_performance": -0.276152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013699, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573769, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10137, "relative_activity": 3.912163, "balance": 0.573769, "dry_up": 2.289717, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098212, "annualized_volatility": 0.533635, "from_high_reference": -0.201767, "from_low_reference": 0.496411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.48765, "fair_value_reference": 6.225824, "structural_low": 4.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.04196, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051924, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.194733, "worst_return": -0.229101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.142559, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.154047, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.180832, "worst_return": -0.378471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.300637, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.313145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.175919, "worst_return": -0.40127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067518, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.084269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032551, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.140343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.310582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162287, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.216, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 634.3, "trend": 7.988, "fair_value": 13.057487, "relative_strength": -11.96315, "stage": 4, "regime": 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5.354333, "fair_value": 6.253196, "relative_strength": 10.999088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.348561, "energy": 78.934057, "activity_lines": [ 5.992667, 5.630636, 5.414564, 5.427044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.12, "volume": 6081, "typical_volume": 1969.7, "trend": 5.4297, "fair_value": 6.246196, "relative_strength": 4.388692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.19786, "energy": 75.888839, "activity_lines": [ 6.098, 5.774455, 5.488586, 5.476442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.8, "volume": 4379, "typical_volume": 2188.65, "trend": 5.468217, "fair_value": 6.237157, "relative_strength": -0.322224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.110816, "energy": 67.928039, "activity_lines": [ 6.039333, 5.829636, 5.529969, 5.500332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.42, "volume": 10137, "typical_volume": 2591.15, "trend": 5.48765, "fair_value": 6.225824, "relative_strength": -9.31685, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.153121, "energy": 35.918772, "activity_lines": [ 5.837333, 5.794455, 5.534667, 5.497222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }